As the United States continues its petroleum blockade of Cuba, tensions are rising on the island, which some describe as a powder keg. Following recognition of ongoing conversations with Washington, the Cuban government announced on March 16, 2026, that members of the Cuban diaspora will be permitted to invest and own businesses in the country. That same day, a widespread power outage struck the island.
Cuba, “on the Brink of Collapse”
“Cuba’s energy crisis has placed it on the brink of collapse, following the cessation of foreign oil supplies in January,” notes Jorge Duany, former director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. According to energy expert Jorge Piñón of the University of Texas, who tracks hydrocarbon shipments to Cuba, “hour zero” – a point of critical failure – is predicted by the end of March if tankers do not arrive on the island.
Despite internal social pressures, exacerbated by the power outages and chronic shortages of food, medicine, and fuel, “it is difficult to predict how long the socialist regime can remain in power, due to the fragmentation of the opposition movement and the proven capacity of the state apparatus to contain protests,” observes Duany.
What’s on the Table?
Washington has asserted for weeks that it is maintaining conversations with Havana. Still, the Cuban government only recently confirmed these bilateral contacts on Friday, March 16, 2026. Experts suggest that the Castro family, rather than Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, is truly in control of negotiations with the United States.
The New York Times has reported that Washington is demanding Díaz-Canel’s resignation as a condition for progress in negotiations. A real change, it is estimated, will come in the economic sphere.
A Potential Shift in Power?
Ted Henken, a professor of Latin American Studies at Baruch College, City University of New York, does not discount the possibility that Díaz-Canel could be forced to resign. He also suggests that the last changes approved by the Castro family will be structural in nature, at the political and civil levels. He estimates that a regime change is unlikely for another two to four years.
The direction of bilateral negotiations could also shift after the U.S. Midterm elections, where Henken predicts a defeat for President Donald Trump’s Republican party. “Now, Trump is empowered, but after November he may lose a lot of power, a lot of projection and much of his ability to act as he has been doing for the past year,” Henken stated.
Prioritizing Economic Reform
Economist Paolo Spadoni, specializing in Latin America and an associate professor at Augusta University, points out that economic reform in Cuba is being prioritized over political reform. He estimates that initial foreign investments in Cuba will be concentrated in the tourism sector, which is crucial for U.S. Companies. To facilitate this, the Trump administration could potentially ease restrictions on travel to the island.
The Role of the Military
Spadoni emphasizes that the military will play a fundamental role in any transition in Cuba, whether economic or political. The military conglomerate, Grupo de Administración Empresarial de las Fuerzas Armadas (GAESA), already controls the most important and lucrative sectors of the country.
Who is “El Cangrejo”?
Discussions between Cuba and the U.S. Have drawn attention to the suggested involvement of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as “El Cangrejo,” grandson of former Cuban President Raúl Castro. Both “El Cangrejo” and Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, the current Minister of Foreign Trade and Investment and Deputy Prime Minister, are considered influential figures in a potential power transition in Cuba, as they are both members of the Castro family.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current state of Cuba’s energy crisis?
Cuba is “on the brink of collapse” due to its energy crisis, following the cessation of foreign oil supplies in January, according to Jorge Duany.
Are negotiations taking place between Cuba and the United States?
Washington asserts it is maintaining conversations with Havana, and the Cuban government recently confirmed these bilateral contacts on March 16, 2026.
What role does the Cuban military play in the country’s economy?
The military conglomerate GAESA “already controls the most important and lucrative” sectors of the country, according to economist Paolo Spadoni.
What impact will the ongoing political and economic pressures have on the future of Cuba?
