A series of negotiations between the government of Delcy Rodríguez and the United States, coupled with a January 29th executive order from Donald Trump, has created a critical juncture for Cuba. A tightening energy blockade, now including Mexico and Russia, highlights longstanding issues within the Cuban system, including its dependence and the perceived renewed interest from Washington in the island.
Cuba is often viewed globally as a symbol of resistance to U.S. Hegemony, but this symbolism relies on concrete policies that directly affect Cuban citizens. The energy blockade and resulting paralysis, driven by the United States, do not diminish but rather amplify the negative effects of these policies.
Reliance on subsidized fuel, inability to make payments, a falling GDP, a budget heavily focused on tourism, and dependence on remittances from the diaspora have become structural elements of the Cuban economy. The crisis in 2025 became irreversible following the cessation of Venezuelan oil supply, a collapse foreseen by economists, sociologists, and demographers.
Recent measures taken by the Cuban government – reducing public transportation, closing universities, suspending cultural and sporting events, canceling flights, and relocating tourists – echo the “Opción Cero” strategy.
The collapse of Cuba is, a predicted outcome. Despite this, those who view Cuba as a victim of the United States remain unconvinced. This perception stems from a denial of history, insisting that the Cuban Revolution has remained unchanged since January 1, 1959, and that the U.S. Embargo has been consistent since February 3, 1962.
In response to the situation, the Cuban government has not granted amnesty to political prisoners, unlike Venezuela, and has instead increased repression through the extrajudicial arrest of young activists who denounce the lack of freedoms on the island. Police and judicial harassment against intellectuals and academics, like Alina Bárbara López Hernández, has similarly increased.
Demands for reform are dismissed as betrayals when the nation is under threat. Loyalty to the country’s leaders is prioritized, and responsibility for the crisis is avoided through a solidarity campaign that distorts the notion of a humanitarian crisis.
Mexico and Chile are providing aid to the island, with Mexico offering assistance through bilateral agreements and Chile through UNICEF. While Mexico’s aid is comparable to disaster relief efforts, both the Cuban government and supporters of Morena view it as a show of support for Cuba’s “resistance against the empire.”
The international left’s relationship with Cuba is shifting, with a growing recognition of the humanitarian crisis on the island. For seven decades, this relationship was based on promoting an alternative economic and social development model for Latin America and the Caribbean. Now, Cuba is being presented by its own government as a collapsing state.
Though, the U.S. Energy blockade does not entirely cripple Cuba’s fuel production, which currently meets up to 40% of the island’s energy needs. The new “Opción Cero” is being considered as a survival strategy, potentially lasting months while Mexico and Russia seek intermittent fuel supplies to maintain essential services.
As long as this limited functionality doesn’t trigger social unrest, the Cuban government can leverage the narrative of resistance. Despite predictions of the regime’s imminent fall, it can present its survival as a testament to the system’s popular support – a fiction that may gain traction given the perceived aggression of the Trump administration.
The Cuban government is likely factoring in the possibility of a shift in the November U.S. Elections, potentially leading to a more organic alliance with the Democratic Party. Such an alliance would be tested if the Democratic Party were to once again demand democratization on the island.
Frequently Asked Questions
What prompted the current crisis in Cuba?
A tightening energy blockade, initiated by a U.S. Executive order and supported by Mexico and Russia, has created a critical situation in Cuba, exposing the country’s economic vulnerabilities.
How has the Cuban government responded to the crisis?
The Cuban government has implemented measures reminiscent of the “Opción Cero” strategy from the 1990s, including reducing public transportation and closing universities, and has increased repression of activists and intellectuals.
What role are other countries playing in the crisis?
Mexico and Chile are providing aid to Cuba, with Mexico offering assistance through bilateral agreements and Chile through UNICEF.
As Cuba navigates this challenging period, what role will international relations and internal political dynamics play in shaping its future?
