Russia Gears Up for a “Next War” Despite Ukraine Strain: An Estonian Intelligence Assessment
Russia is unlikely to attack any NATO member in the coming year, but is actively preparing for future conflicts, according to Estonia’s annual international security report released this week. The assessment, published by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), paints a picture of a Kremlin focused on rebuilding its military strength and challenging the existing international order, even as its economy falters and the war in Ukraine continues.
No Immediate Threat to NATO, But Vigilance is Key
EFIS Director General Kaupo Rosin stated that Moscow currently has “no intention” of launching a military attack on Estonia or any other NATO member. This assessment is expected to remain consistent in the near future, due to steps taken by Estonia and Europe to deter potential aggression. However, Rosin emphasized the continued require for NATO’s deterrence efforts to ensure this remains the case.
Ukraine: A Stepping Stone, Not the Final Goal
Despite the significant costs of the war in Ukraine, Russia shows no genuine interest in peaceful resolution. The Kremlin “merely feigns interest” in peace talks, according to the report, with the ultimate goal of restoring bilateral relations with the United States and “formalizing Ukraine’s defeat.” Russia continues to view Washington as its principal adversary.
A Two-Pronged Foreign Policy Strategy
Russia is simultaneously attempting to undermine the current international order while courting support from the “global majority” – described as “formerly colonized states.” This dual approach involves exerting pressure on regional allies while seeking to build alliances that challenge Western dominance. The relationship with China is characterized as an “alliance without a treaty,” with both nations prioritizing their relationship over potential agreements with the U.S.
Rebuilding Military Might: A Focus on Drone Warfare and Ammunition
Despite facing economic challenges, Russia’s military-industrial complex is functioning, aided by sanctions evasion schemes. Artillery ammunition production has increased more than seventeenfold since 2021, indicating a strong focus on rebuilding stockpiles for future conflicts. Russia is rapidly establishing specialized drone units across all branches of its military, assigning them both combat and support roles. The report warns that future conflicts with Russia will likely involve widespread use of unmanned systems on land, in the air, and at sea.
Pro Tip: The increasing reliance on drones highlights the need for NATO to invest in counter-drone technology and develop strategies for operating in a drone-saturated environment.
Economic Strain, But Not Collapse
Russia’s economy is facing increasingly severe problems, with nearly all non-military sectors neglected. EFIS predicts a contraction in Russia’s GDP in 2026, raising the risk of economic and social instability. The defense sector is expanding at the expense of the civilian economy, leading to recession or stagnation in most other areas. However, a complete economic collapse is considered unlikely.
Sanctions Evasion: A Critical Weakness
The report highlights the importance of closing loopholes that enable sanctions evasion, allowing dual-use goods to continue flowing into Russia. This is crucial to limiting Russia’s ability to rebuild its military-industrial complex and sustain its war efforts.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Russia likely to attack a NATO country soon?
A: The Estonian intelligence report assesses that Russia has no intention of attacking a NATO country in the coming year.
Q: What is Russia’s primary goal in Ukraine?
A: The report suggests Russia’s goal is to “formalize Ukraine’s defeat” and restore bilateral relations with the United States.
Q: How is Russia’s economy performing?
A: Russia’s economy is facing significant challenges and is predicted to contract in 2026, but a complete collapse is considered unlikely.
Q: What is Russia doing to modernize its military?
A: Russia is increasing ammunition production, establishing drone units, and investing in military reform.
Did you know? Russia’s artillery ammunition production has increased by over 1700% since 2021.
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