Ethiopian federal military forces recaptured Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle on October 3, 2026, marking a major strategic blow to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front as renewed civil war escalates across northern Ethiopia and stokes fears of a wider regional conflict.
Federal Forces Advance Toward Mekelle and Secure the Regional Airport
Federal military forces pushed deep into Tigray’s capital on October 3, 2026, regaining control of Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle. Three separate sources confirmed the operation to Reuters, dealing a severe setback to the opposition alliance that seized the facility on September 23.
The offensive follows a sweeping counteroffensive by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, which largely repelled an initial rebel push in the north. According to tactical assessments from Critical Threats, federal troops moved rapidly along multiple axes, including the A2 highway corridor through Alamata and Korem, while securing secondary routes to block potential rebel supply lines. The Ethiopian National Defense Forces and the Tigray Peace Force began advancing north into Tigray’s Southern zone via the A2 highway, capturing towns such as Alamata and Korem, the latter situated approximately 60 miles north of Woldia and 100 miles south of Mekelle. On September 27, federal forces also retook Sekota, located 70 miles west of Alamata, after the Amhara Fano National Movement and Tigrayan rebel elements had entered the town on September 25. Subsequently, federal forces and the Tigray Peace Force advanced 40 miles north to capture Abergele on the Tigray regional border approximately 60 miles southwest of Mekelle on September 28.
Mappers and pro-rebel sources also reported that rebel forces captured the Dallol district, situated 115 miles northeast of Mekelle on the Eritrean and Tigray borders, on September 29. By September 30, rebels reportedly controlled at least three to six of the eight total districts in Afar’s northernmost zone.
The Collapse of the Pretoria Peace Deal and the Rise of a New Armed Alliance
The renewed warfare shatters the framework established by the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. While that pact successfully paused large-scale combat and initiated heavy weapon surrenders monitored by the African Union, it failed to deliver a comprehensive political settlement that restored Tigray’s self-rule and parliamentary representation. The 2022 Pretoria peace deal required the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to disarm while the federal government was tasked with helping remove the front’s terrorist designation, restoring essential services in Tigray, enabling humanitarian access, and returning federal authority to the region. The deal also mandated the withdrawal of Eritrean and other non-federal forces from Tigrayan territories.
Tensions boiled over when Ethiopia’s electoral board banned the TPLF from national elections, prompting the group to reestablish its prewar legislative council. On September 21, 2026, seven distinct factions formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival with the explicit goal of unseating Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This broad coalition brings together the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Front, the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.
“Far from closing a painful chapter, this decision removes one of the few remaining checks on state-led violence, paving a direct path toward the next destructive war in the Horn of Africa.”
Tigray Genocide (Yemane Zeray Mesfin)
Regional Diplomacy Frays as Addis Ababa Exchanges Accusations With Neighbors
As internal combat intensifies, diplomatic relations across the Horn of Africa are deteriorating rapidly. The federal government in Addis Ababa severed diplomatic ties with Eritrea, accusing neighboring governments in Asmara, Cairo, and Khartoum of providing material support to the newly formed rebel coalition, an allegation that Sudan, Egypt, and Eritrea have explicitly denied. Sudanese military authorities specifically called these accusations baseless.
Birhanu Jula asserted that the opposition offensive could not succeed without external backing, accusing Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of supporting the new alliance. Meanwhile, international bodies are pressing for immediate de-escalation. Amnesty International urged the African Union to convene an emergency session to address the spiralling crisis. US ambassador Ervin Massinga criticized the front for launching a large-scale offensive, characterizing the campaign as an unwinnable fight and warning of potential further sanctions against the front and leaders of the new alliance.
The starting point is for the Peace and Security Council to urgently convene an emergency session on the situation in Ethiopia.
Tigere Chagutah, Amnesty International’s Regional Director for East and Southern Africa
Violence in Northern Ethiopia Displaces Thousands
The resurgence of large-scale hostilities has plunged millions of residents back into acute vulnerability. Reports from Al Jazeera indicate violence is flaring across northern Ethiopia, provoking diplomatic spats amid a deteriorating humanitarian situation for millions. UNICEF officials warned that children and families are once again bearing the brunt of the violence, with public infrastructure and residential areas sustaining damage. At least 150,000 people have been displaced in the Afar region alone, while Médecins Sans Frontières reported that their treatment centers received at least 720 war-wounded individuals as of September 25.
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