Donald Trump answered Everything is possible
when asked if he would launch a new attack on Iran following the midterm elections. The remark has triggered intense diplomatic activity across Europe and the Middle East as governments scramble to avert a full-scale regional war. Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, outlined two major diplomatic initiatives aimed at stabilizing the region without U.S. leadership.
E4 and R4 Foreign Ministers Meet in Istanbul
The first major diplomatic track brings together the E4 group—comprising the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy—alongside the R4 group, which includes Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Foreign ministers from these eight nations gathered in Istanbul on October 23 to tackle a series of escalating crises. Their agenda covered preserving the two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, halting the war between the U.S. and Iran, reopening maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and shielding Saudi Arabia from recent offensives launched by the Houthi movement in Yemen.
Italy’s inclusion alongside the traditional E3 European powers marks a strategic shift. Rome enters the diplomatic fold without the diplomatic baggage carried by Berlin and London. Germany’s unwavering support for Israel has strained its regional influence and worsened its relations with Tehran since 2022. Britain’s diplomatic weight has faced post-Brexit constraints, while Italy has avoided the controversial E3 push from last year to trigger the snapback mechanism for international sanctions against Iran. This positioning gives Italian diplomats more room to mediate.
Security Chiefs Travel to Tehran for Talks
Three days after the Istanbul ministerial meeting, a second diplomatic track unfolded in Iran. The heads of the security services of Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia traveled to Tehran to meet directly with Iranian leaders. This regional outreach aimed to draw Iran into a serious diplomatic framework and avert a new cycle of military escalation. For Tehran, hosting the security delegations offered a tangible public relations victory amid maximum-pressure blockade efforts led by the Trump administration.
Regional powers are pushing hard for deescalation because Tehran has signaled that its response to future U.S. or Israeli airstrikes will outscale the destruction seen over the previous eight months. Houthi attacks in recent weeks have already damaged critical infrastructure inside Saudi Arabia and disrupted commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea. A coordinated blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait by Iran and its regional proxies would inflict severe shocks on the global economy. During the Tehran meetings, officials from Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia warned their Iranian counterparts that further strikes on civilian sites and neighboring infrastructure would kill any prospect of long-term regional integration.
Middle Powers Form New Security Alignment
The most striking element of both the Istanbul and Tehran summits is the complete absence of the United States. European capitals and Middle Eastern regional powers are increasingly bypassing an unpredictable Washington to manage security independently. For the quartet of Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, U.S. policies toward Tehran shattered the long-held assumption that American military forces guarantee unconditional protection—a realization European nations now share regarding security guarantees in Ukraine. Although the U.S. and Israel retain the military capacity to devastate the region, both allies have proven either unable or unwilling to secure a lasting peace.
Faced with the fallout of potential state collapse in Iran—a nation of more than 90 million people—regional governments and European partners recognize that rigorous diplomacy is the only shield against continental catastrophe. Neither Washington nor Israel is likely to finance or manage the immense reconstruction effort required if the Iranian state fractures. Meanwhile, hardline military factions empowered by ongoing hostilities remain firmly in control of decision-making inside the Islamic Republic.
Coalitions coordinate pressure to restore commercial shipping
Preventing a high-intensity war remains the urgent priority for both the E4 and R4 coalitions. If these countries coordinate their economic and diplomatic pressure effectively, they can pressure both Washington and Tehran to restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Cooperation with the R4 nations grants European governments direct channels to both the White House and Tehran at a time when traditional transatlantic influence is waning.
Foreign ministers meet in Istanbul to discuss regional security
Which countries make up the E4 and R4 diplomatic groups?
The E4 group includes the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy. The R4 group consists of Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.
When did foreign ministers from the E4 and R4 nations meet in Istanbul?
The foreign ministers met in Istanbul on October 23 to discuss regional security, maritime trade, and the preservation of the two-state solution.
Why did security chiefs from Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia travel to Tehran?
The security chiefs traveled to Tehran three days after the Istanbul meeting to engage Iranian leadership directly and prevent a new cycle of military escalation.
What military pact was signed by members of the R4 group?
All members of the R4 group except Egypt signed the Mecca Defense Pact in August, which was subsequently invoked following Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia.