“Exceptional intensity.” That is how the European climate observatory Copernicus describes the current El Niño phenomenon, which pushed global sea surface temperatures to record levels in September.
September Sea Temperatures Eclipse 2023 Record
The average sea temperature, excluding polar regions, hit 21.05°C during the month. That figure surpasses the previous September record of 20.92°C set in 2023, according to RTL.
Pacific Reference Zone Breaks Historical Marks
The “Niño 3.4” region in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific recorded a mean temperature of 29.70°C in September. This exceeds peaks from past powerful El Niño events in 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reported that surface temperatures in this zone were 4.0°C above normal, eclipsing the previous record of +3.6°C set in December 1997.
While Copernicus noted that the current event is intensifying, it cautioned that it cannot yet be definitively labeled the strongest ever recorded when accounting for the underlying trend of global ocean warming.
Global Temperatures Breach Paris Agreement Thresholds
September was the second-warmest month globally since records began, measuring 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels, per Copernicus. This marks the second month that temperatures have exceeded the 1.5°C threshold defined by the Paris Agreement.
While this limit is intended to be measured over a multi-year average, Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus service, stated that with a powerful El Niño continuing to intensify, it is likely this trend of exceeding 1.5°C will persist until 2027.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) corroborated these concerns, noting that the probability of the phenomenon lasting until February 2027 is near 100%, according to reports from La Presse.
Drought Conditions Threaten Livestock Across New Caledonia
The warming trend has triggered severe climate disruptions. In New Caledonia, the lack of rainfall since May, exacerbated by the El Niño cycle, has left farmers struggling to maintain livestock.
Philippe Pochard, a local breeder, reported that cattle now require up to 60 liters of water per day due to the extreme heat, forcing producers to rely on strategic water reserves and purchased hay, as detailed by St Martin Week.
Meanwhile, the WMO warns of a “highly contrasted” map of global risks. Excessive rainfall and flood risks threaten the Horn of Africa and parts of the Americas.
El Niño Intensifies Human Induced Climate Change Effects
El Niño is a natural climate variation that warms the Pacific, but it acts as an accelerator by releasing heat that oceans have already stored. It does not add new heat to the planet, but it intensifies the effects of human-induced climate change, according to Celeste Saulo of the WMO.
While some indicators, such as the 4.0°C anomaly reported by the JMA, have surpassed previous records, climate scientists are still working to isolate these figures from the background trend of global ocean warming. Copernicus states that when this warming trend is removed, the current episode has not yet exceeded the intensity of the most significant events of the past.
The World Meteorological Organization projects that the current El Niño will continue to intensify, reaching its peak in December before potentially persisting through February 2027.