With Gameweek 22 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) nearing, our pundits are starting to finalise their teams before Saturday’s deadline.
FPL General, who has three top 500 finishes to his name, continues to plough on without Erling Haaland (£15.1m)!
Here, he outlines his plans for the week ahead.
Gameweek 21 Review
The FA Cup break came at a good time for me, following a disastrous Gameweek 21. It’s been refreshing to switch off from FPL for a bit after the hectic festive schedule.
A rage Wildcard was very nearly activated, but I managed to talk myself off the ledge. Instead, I’m eyeing up a Gameweek 24 Wildcard to load up on Chelsea assets, bring Bruno Fernandes (£9.1m) back in, and go back to the Crystal Palace guys. Not many of the current crop will survive this cull.
Looking back, my two free transfers were used to rid myself of frustrating picks David Raya (£5.9m) and Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m). The subsequent 0-0 draw between Arsenal and Liverpool was then destined to happen.
In came Nick Pope (£5.1m) and Malick Thiaw (£5.1m), combining for a total of one point. Great timing, Mark! The Newcastle United duo will get these next two fixtures before being discarded. And the goalkeeper position has been a real weak spot in my team throughout the season, bagging only four clean sheets in 21 games. Next season, it will simply be a £4.5m set-and-forget stopper.
Also continuing is the captaincy struggle. That’s three times Matheus Cunha (£8.1m) has led my troops into battle, and he’s blanked every time. He could be sold this week, with tricky fixtures against Manchester City and Arsenal up next.
I finally got Pep’d last Gameweek, when Guardiola benched Nico O’Reilly (£5.3m) and Rayan Cherki (£6.8m). There’s some hope that both players will start the next two matches, but then both are likely to depart in Wildcard week. Still, despite only playing 23 minutes, Cherki created four chances and fired off four penalty area shots.
Gameweek 22 Team
The Rise of Data-Driven FPL Strategy
FPL is no longer just about gut feelings. The most successful managers, like General, are increasingly relying on data analytics to inform their decisions. This includes expected goals (xG), expected assists (xA), and fixture difficulty ratings. Tools like Fantasy Football Scout provide comprehensive data, but understanding how to interpret it is key.
We’re seeing a shift towards identifying undervalued assets – players with strong underlying stats who are priced lower than their potential output. This is particularly effective in mid-range players, where small price differences can significantly impact team value.
Pro Tip: Don’t just chase points. Focus on players consistently creating chances, even if they aren’t always converting them. Regression to the mean suggests those chances will eventually turn into goals.
The Impact of Managerial Rotation
Pep Guardiola’s penchant for rotating his Manchester City squad – the dreaded “Pep Roulette” – continues to be a major headache for FPL managers. As General experienced, owning City assets requires a degree of luck and a willingness to accept benchings. This trend isn’t limited to City; many top managers are now prioritizing squad rotation to manage player fatigue and maintain performance levels throughout the season.
This has led to a greater emphasis on selecting players from teams with more predictable starting lineups, like Bournemouth or Crystal Palace. While these teams may not boast the same star power, their consistent playing time offers a more reliable return on investment.
The Goalkeeper Conundrum
General’s admission of a struggling goalkeeper position highlights a common FPL challenge. Clean sheets are notoriously difficult to predict, and investing heavily in a premium goalkeeper often yields diminishing returns. The trend is shifting towards opting for cheaper, reliable goalkeepers (£4.5m bracket) and focusing budget elsewhere.
Data from the past few seasons shows that the difference in points between a £5.5m goalkeeper and a £4.5m goalkeeper is often minimal, making the latter a more sensible financial choice. This allows managers to strengthen key attacking positions.
Captaincy Considerations: Beyond the Obvious
The captaincy decision remains the most crucial weekly challenge in FPL. While established stars like Haaland and Salah are often popular choices, General’s struggles with Cunha demonstrate the potential rewards of identifying differential captains – players with lower ownership who could outperform expectations.
Looking ahead, identifying players with favorable fixtures and a high probability of attacking returns will be key. Analyzing a player’s form, underlying stats, and opponent’s defensive vulnerabilities is crucial for making informed captaincy decisions.
FPL FAQs
- What is xG? Expected Goals – a metric that measures the quality of a shooting chance.
- What is xA? Expected Assists – a metric that measures the quality of a chance created for a teammate.
- Is it worth taking a points hit for transfers? Generally, avoid hits unless they are strategically important for maximizing potential returns.
- When is the best time to use a Wildcard? During periods of fixture congestion or when a significant overhaul of your team is needed.
Want to dive deeper into FPL strategy? Explore our FPL Strategy Hub for expert analysis and tips. Share your thoughts on General’s team and your own FPL plans in the comments below!
