A contentious debate over Swiss nuclear energy costs escalated as former federal nuclear safety official Georg Schwarz published a 22-page analysis dismantling calculations from the Academy of Natural Sciences Switzerland (SCNAT). The August SCNAT study had claimed new nuclear power plants could cost up to 43 billion Swiss francs, a figure seized upon by opponents lifting the construction ban. Schwarz’s critique asserts that the academy’s report contains mathematical errors, relies on questionable baseline data, and misinterprets historical project overruns.
Former Federal Official Points to Mathematical Errors and Outdated Data
Georg Schwarz, who served as deputy director of the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (Ensi) and headed its nuclear power plant division until October 2021, recalculated the academy’s study point by point. His analysis determines that six of the eight cost figures in the SCNAT report are mathematically flawed. For instance, the maximum overall cost of a large French reactor drops from 43 billion to 41 billion francs when applying the academy’s own stated formulas.
Beyond arithmetic, Schwarz argues that the 43-billion-franc estimate relies on an outdated reactor type no longer offered in Europe, rendering it irrelevant for Switzerland. He also contends that the academy miscalculated original budgets by setting them too low—such as estimating Olkiluoto 3’s initial cost at 1,500 francs per kilowatt instead of his calculated 3,400 francs—which inflated subsequent cost overrun factors by roughly 70 percent.
Did You Know? Georg Schwarz served as deputy director of the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (Ensi) and led its nuclear power plant oversight division until October 2021.
Researchers Question Methodology While the Academy Defends Scenarios
Schwarz is not alone in questioning the SCNAT findings. Earlier, a group of researchers from ETH Zurich, EPFL, and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)—including nuclear technology professor Annalisa Manera and PSI nuclear division head Andreas Pautz—called the 43-billion-franc calculation incomprehensible and lacking transparency. Schwarz argues that the academy's focus on troubled Western projects like Olkiluoto in Finland, Flamanville in France, and Vogtle in the USA ignored successful cost reductions in Chinese and other international projects, creating a misleading trend of inevitable price inflation.
Contrasting these estimates, Schwarz calculates that new nuclear plants could realistically cost between 12 and 19 billion francs, depending on the scenario, by relying on data from manufacturer EDF and the Axpo nuclear study. This lower estimate assumes streamlined approval processes and a halt to accumulating technical requirements during construction. In response, SCNAT spokesperson Andres Jordi defended the report, emphasizing that the figures are illustrative scenarios rather than definitive predictions. Jordi stated that the academy’s assumptions reflect actual historical overruns and that future efficiency gains remain uncertain.
Federal Parliament Prepares to Review Scientific Integrity
The academic dispute is poised to move into the political arena in Bern. Christian Imark, a Swiss People’s Party (SVP) National Councillor from Solothurn, has submitted a parliamentary initiative demanding that the Federal Council have an independent body investigate whether SCNAT adhered to rules of scientific integrity. Imark also seeks answers regarding whether the funding conditions for the federally financed institution are sufficiently monitored, placing Energy Minister Albert Rösti’s upcoming responses under intense scrutiny.
Study Calculates High Cost for New Nuclear Plant
What is the maximum cost estimated for a new nuclear power plant by the SCNAT study?
The August study by the Academy of Natural Sciences Switzerland calculated that a new nuclear power plant could cost up to 43 billion Swiss francs.
Who carried out the detailed counter-analysis against the academy’s figures?
Georg Schwarz, a geophysicist and former deputy director of the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (Ensi), authored the 22-page critical analysis.
What political action has been initiated in response to the controversy?
SVP National Councillor Christian Imark submitted a parliamentary initiative asking the Federal Council to independently review SCNAT for scientific integrity and oversee its state funding.
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