The attempted Russian invasion of Ukraine, initially envisioned as a swift operation to install a pro-Moscow government in Kyiv, has stretched over four years, defying expectations and revealing a core ambition of Vladimir Putin: restoring a sphere of influence reminiscent of the Soviet era.
A Pattern of Intervention
Ukraine is not an isolated case. Geopolitical events – the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria in 2024, the attempted ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – demonstrate a pattern of intervention. While the actors differ, Washington is identified as the driving force in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran, positioning itself as a key rival to Moscow.
The Illusion of a Multipolar World
Putin has long advocated for a “multipolar world,” defined by Russia as “equal and just relations with all states” and “universal respect for human rights, and freedoms.” However, the emerging reality is a world order where major powers operate within their own spheres of influence, often disregarding international law. Russia has demonstrably sought to rebuild its lost empire in recent years.
Trump’s Role
The election of Donald Trump complicated this landscape. Though initially appearing to offer Russia a path back onto the global stage, Trump’s actions ultimately undermined Moscow’s position. His transactional approach, prioritizing US interests and those of American corporations, led to outcomes not aligned with Russian goals, such as a deal brokered between Armenia and Azerbaijan, diminishing Russia’s role as a regional power broker.
The Limits of Russian Power
Russia’s inability to effectively respond to events in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran underscores its weakening position. Unlike its significant military intervention in Syria in 2015, Moscow has largely remained on the sidelines in recent crises, likely due to the strain of the war in Ukraine, economic sanctions, and a reluctance to directly confront the United States.
China’s Rising Influence
As Russia’s influence wanes, China is stepping into the void, leveraging economic investments and loans to expand its influence in regions previously dominated by Moscow, particularly in Central Asia. Despite a publicly stated “partnership without limits,” the dynamic between China and Russia is shifting, with China increasingly holding the upper hand.
The New Geopolitical Reality
The current situation represents a steady decline in Russian power, not a sudden collapse. Russia’s focus on Ukraine has diverted resources, creating opportunities for other actors. The emerging multipolar world is characterized by competition and shifting alliances, challenging traditional power dynamics.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Russia losing its influence on the world stage?
Russia’s influence is demonstrably declining, particularly in regions where it once held significant sway. However, it remains a major player, especially in energy markets.
What role is China playing in this shift?
China is actively expanding its influence in regions previously dominated by Russia, leveraging economic power and strategic partnerships.
How is the US benefiting from this changing landscape?
The US is regaining influence in areas where Russia’s power has waned, and is pursuing its own strategic interests through diplomatic and economic means.
As the global order continues to evolve, what strategies might smaller nations employ to navigate the complexities of great power competition and safeguard their own interests?
