Hurricane Simon reached Category 4 strength on Oct. 10, 2026, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (241 kph), as it moved toward Mexico’s west-central coast, AP News reported. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects the storm to be near or just inland by Sunday, bringing life-threatening flooding, mudslides, and a dangerous storm surge to southwestern Mexico.
Jalisco and Colima prepare for landfall
Jalisco state suspended classes in 22 coastal municipalities for Friday and Monday.
In Puerto Vallarta, a popular Pacific coast resort city, businesses spent Saturday boarding up windows and placing sandbags at entrances. Officials from Jalisco called upon tourism enterprises and hotels in Puerto Vallarta to make sure that guests and staff had a way to reach safe zones or shelters. Local vendors remained active under overcast skies, with some stating they would only close once Civil Protection officials issued the order, AP News reported.
Did you know?
Hurricane Simon is part of a rare confluence of three active North American storms this weekend. While Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel track toward Mexico and the U.S. Southwest, Hurricane Isaias hit the U.S. through the Gulf of Mexico, The New York Times reported.
Simon may trigger mudslides and flooding in Mexico
The NHC warns that Simon could drop 10 to 20 inches (25-50 cm) of rain across southwestern Mexico. Some areas in Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán may receive up to 30 inches (76 cm).
This volume of precipitation is expected to trigger mudslides and flooding, particularly in steep terrain.
El Niño drives rapid intensification of Pacific storms
Simon intensified rapidly, reaching hurricane strength on Thursday and accelerating to Category 4 by late Friday, The New York Times reported. The storm’s size is a factor in its potential; forecasters warned it is small enough that it could grow even stronger. Should it attain Category 5 status, it would be the first instance of four Category 5 hurricanes appearing in the Eastern and Central Pacific during one season, alongside Polo, Lowell, and Genevieve.
Yale Climate Connections attributes this stretch of rapidly intensifying Pacific storms largely to El Niño. Record-strength El Niño conditions have already pushed water levels along the Southern California coast about 1.5 feet above normal.
Forecast Comparisons
| Detail | NHC / AP News | Yale Climate Connections |
|---|---|---|
| Landfall Timing | Near or inland by Sunday | Major hurricane early Sunday; weakening minimal hurricane by Sunday night |
| Wind Speed | 150 mph (241 kph) | Not specified |
Regional impacts beyond Mexico
Pro tip for travelers:
Check official alerts from the National Hurricane Center for the most current coordinates and wind speeds when traveling to Pacific coast destinations during El Niño seasons.
Computer models show uncertainty over landfall timing
The precise track of the hurricane remains a point of uncertainty. The New York Times noted that computer models generally agree on a northeast turn toward the shore, but a shift of a few miles could move the landfall timing from Saturday night to early next week. Mexico News Daily added that the storm could weaken rapidly if its center moves inland, whereas staying offshore would allow it to maintain hurricane strength as it moves north.
Common questions about Hurricane Simon
Which specific Mexican states are under the highest rain warnings?
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco are expected to receive the heaviest rainfall, with some areas potentially seeing up to 30 inches (76 cm), according to the NHC.
How does Simon differ from Tropical Storm Rachel?
Simon is by far the stronger system, reaching Category 4 status, while Rachel is a tropical storm tracking toward the U.S.-Mexico border, Yale Climate Connections reported.
Whether Simon will reach Category 5 intensity remains unknown, as forecasters continue to monitor its size and the open ocean waters fueling its strength.
More on Hurricane Simon
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