Growth in South-east Asia’s electricity demand will average 5.4 per cent annually through 2030, driven largely by expanding industry, cooling needs, and data centres, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Asean Energy Security Review, released on Tuesday, indicates that the region faces widening electricity security challenges due to tightening supply and demand balances, variable renewable energy integration, and constrained power networks.
Rising Electricity Demand Across Indonesia and Vietnam
Electricity consumption across the region is climbing rapidly, with Indonesia expected to drive about 40 per cent of the total demand growth through 2030. Vietnam follows closely behind, accounting for 26 per cent of the projected increase. This surge places immediate pressure on electric power systems that must balance escalating industrial and commercial requirements against existing generation limits.
The IEA report highlights that continued reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal leaves power generation sensitive to fuel market volatility and geopolitical developments. Wholesale electricity prices and retail tariffs could face upward pressure as a result of this import dependence.
Asean region faces surging natural gas consumption and LNG imports
Natural gas currently contributes nearly one-fifth of the total energy supply in the Asean region. Between 2015 and 2025, LNG imports more than trebled, signaling a deepening reliance on overseas fuel sources for power generation. Gas consumption is expected to grow by roughly 18 per cent—exceeding 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually—between 2025 and 2030, marking a faster growth rate than the previous decade.
The power sector will account for the lion’s share of this expansion. The region is adding around 24 gigawatts of gas-fired generation capacity, which will push gas consumption for power generation up by about 30 per cent, or 25 bcm a year, through 2030. Industrial gas consumption will grow more modestly, while gas use in the upstream energy sector is projected to decline as regional natural gas production and LNG exports continue to fall.
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According to the IEA report, alternatives such as biomethane will remain limited in the medium term, with production unlikely to exceed 1 bcm by 2030 even under supportive policies. Similarly, low-emissions hydrogen is not expected to see meaningful commercial-scale deployment across the region before the end of the decade due to high capital costs and a lack of binding targets.
Region controls vast critical mineral reserves amid supply chain vulnerabilities
The region controls more than half of global nickel reserves, roughly two-fifths of bauxite reserves, and about 17 per cent of tin reserves, alongside deposits of cobalt, copper, and rare earth elements.
These reserves place the region at the center of global manufacturing and transport supply chains. However, high capital costs, supply concentration, and external pressures—such as Middle East conflicts inflating logistics costs—create distinct vulnerabilities. Global capital expenditure on critical mineral projects fell 9 per cent year-on-year in 2025, forcing regional operators to weigh how to capture local economic value while insulating supply chains from international trade disruptions.
Frequently Asked Questions About Asean Energy Security
Which countries account for the largest share of electricity demand growth in the region?
Indonesia accounts for about 40 per cent of the projected demand growth through 2030, while Vietnam represents 26 per cent.
How much is natural gas consumption expected to increase by 2030?
Gas consumption in the Asean region is projected to increase by around 18 per cent, or more than 30 billion cubic metres per year, between 2025 and 2030.
What percentage of global nickel reserves does South-east Asia hold?
The region holds more than half of global nickel reserves, in addition to about two-fifths of bauxite reserves and 17 per cent of tin reserves.
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