Ghana’s Cocoa Crisis: A Looming Shift in Global Supply?
Ghana, historically the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is facing a confluence of challenges – declining harvests, delayed farmer payments, and liquidity issues at the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD). These issues have prompted an emergency Cabinet meeting led by President John Dramani Mahama, signaling the gravity of the situation.
Falling Production Deepens Crisis
Ghana’s cocoa output has been steadily decreasing in recent seasons. The COCOBOD projected a harvest of around 600,000 tonnes for the 2024/2025 season, falling short of the historical average of 800,000 tonnes and significantly below the 1 million+ tonnes recorded in 2020/2021. As of February 12, 2026, over 530,000 tonnes have been sold, but approximately 50,000 tonnes remain unsold with farmers.
The Price Problem
A key factor contributing to the unsold cocoa is Ghana’s non-competitive farmgate price. COCOBOD Managing Director Randy Abbey noted, “The situation is where we have beans, but they are not buying; the beans are too expensive.” Efforts are underway to address delayed payments to farmers, but the underlying price disparity remains a significant hurdle.
Competitors are on the Rise
While Ghana struggles, other cocoa-producing nations are rapidly expanding their capacity. Ecuador is emerging as a major competitor, with projections exceeding 650,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 season and anticipated growth to 800,000 tonnes by the end of the decade. Ecuadorian farms boast higher yields – around 800 kilograms per hectare – and farmers receive a larger share of the world market price (roughly 90%) compared to Ghanaian and Ivorian farmers (60-70%).
Indonesia, the world’s third-largest producer, is also experiencing growth, with exports reaching $47 million in 2023 and forecasts suggesting a 30% increase to 836,000 tonnes by 2026. Government programs and initiatives like Cocoa Life are supporting this expansion by improving fermentation consistency and farm yields.
Nigeria, currently ranked fourth globally, aims to increase its output to 500,000 tonnes, targeting 6.5% of global supply. While challenges remain, Nigeria could potentially challenge Ghana’s position as the world’s second-largest producer.
Global Market Pressures and Future Outlook
Despite correcting from 2024’s historic peaks, cocoa futures remain elevated, trading around $3,700 per tonne as of February 12, 2026. The industry is responding with initiatives like the new International Cocoa Agreement, set to be inaugurated at a United Nations Cocoa Conference on February 13, 2026, aiming to promote sustainability and price stability.
Ghana’s ability to maintain its position will depend on implementing domestic reforms and responding effectively to the rising competition. The future of Ghana’s cocoa industry, and its role in the global market, hangs in the balance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is COCOBOD?
A: COCOBOD is the government agency responsible for regulating Ghana’s cocoa sector and supporting farmers.
Q: Why is Ecuador becoming a major cocoa producer?
A: Ecuador benefits from higher yields, a more favorable price structure for farmers, and increasing investment in cocoa production.
Q: What is the International Cocoa Agreement?
A: It’s a new agreement aiming to promote sustainability and price stability in the cocoa sector, set to be inaugurated in February 2026.
Q: What is the current price of cocoa futures?
A: As of February 12, 2026, cocoa futures are trading around $3,700 per tonne.
Did you grasp? Ecuador’s cocoa farmers receive approximately 90% of the world market price for their beans, significantly higher than the 60-70% earned by farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Pro Tip: Maintain an eye on developments in Ecuador and Indonesia – these nations are poised to significantly impact the global cocoa supply chain.
What are your thoughts on the future of cocoa production? Share your insights in the comments below!
