Iran Selectively Reopens Strait of Hormuz Amidst Rising Tensions
Iran has begun allowing selective passage to certain vessels through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, recognizing it as its primary leverage in the conflict against the United States and Israel. This narrow waterway, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes, has develop into a focal point of escalating tensions.
Most of the vessels granted passage are oil tankers and cargo ships heading to Asian countries like China, India, and Pakistan, as well as freighters destined for or having previously called at Gulf countries. Iranian sources indicate that the strait was never officially closed, and ships are currently transiting the passage.
Criteria for Passage: A Balancing Act
According to Iranian sources, the criteria for allowing vessels to cross the passage separating Iran’s coast from its Gulf neighbors are aligned with international law. Iran will continue to veto the navigation of any vessel that could “benefit” the aggressors – referring to the United States and Israel. This selective approach allows Iran to maintain control over the crucial maritime route while exerting pressure on adversaries.
On Sunday, the Pakistani-flagged Aframax tanker Karachi, carrying around 700,000 barrels of crude oil, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz. The vessels Stellan and Nora also passed, carrying over two million barrels destined for China.
Verification Process and Potential Inspections
Several Greek, Chinese, and Indian-owned freighters also traversed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Data from MarineTraffic indicates these ships utilized the channel between the Larak and Qeshm islands, near the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. Maritime analyst Martin Kelly suggests this may be part of a “verification process” by Iranian authorities to confirm that neither the vessels nor their cargo are linked to the United States.
In the last week, Kpler data shows 34 vessels have crossed the Strait in either direction: 13 oil tankers, four liquefied gas tankers, and the remainder freighters. A significant portion of these vessels are linked to Greek, Chinese, Iranian, Indian, and Emirati shipping companies.
Iran’s Control and Signaling
Intelligence from Ambrey, a maritime intelligence firm, suggests the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has established a checkpoint where transiting vessels may be inspected. Vessels destined for or owned by India and China appear more likely to receive permission to pass. By selectively restricting access rather than completely closing the Strait, Iran demonstrates its operational control over the waterway and its ability to differentiate between states, applying pressure on the US and its allies while allowing continued transit for countries like China and India.
Escalating Attacks and Disruptions
Since the start of the offensive against Iran by Israeli and US forces on February 28th, at least 17 ships have been attacked in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. The latest incident involved a Kuwaiti-owned tanker anchored near the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, hit by an unidentified projectile.
The US government reports that Iranian forces have also begun deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which at its narrowest point is 34 kilometers wide, with just over three kilometers navigable. The US has reportedly damaged or destroyed around thirty of these mine-laying vessels and bombed the island of Jarg, a key Iranian oil supply port.
These actions have led to a 90-95% collapse in traffic through the critical strait, a tripling of insurance premiums, and numerous shipping companies invoking force majeure to cancel orders. This, combined with damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the region, has driven up hydrocarbon prices. Approximately one thousand ships are currently stranded on either side of the strait, awaiting clearance to pass.
Crude Oil Continues to Flow
Analysis of Kpler and Equasis data indicates that Iranian oil tankers have continued to operate, exporting over six million barrels of oil in the last week to Asian markets, despite the US bombing of the island of Jarg on March 13th. Sources within the Iranian regime maintain that crude oil exports from the island have not been interrupted. TankerTrackers.com satellite imagery confirms that Tehran continues to load crude oil from facilities in Jarg.
Chinese vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz are often operated by smaller companies and are part of what has been termed the “phantom fleet” – older vessels flying false flags, often lacking necessary insurance, and frequently disabling their transponders to conceal their position.
These vessels reportedly transmit messages via loudspeakers and shortwave radio stating, “We are a Chinese ship, we are friends,” to notify the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which controls military actions in the Gulf, and avoid potential attack.
International Responses and Future Outlook
Greece has publicly distanced itself from US President Donald Trump’s request to form a military coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Other European countries, including France and Italy, are reportedly attempting to negotiate safe passage for their merchant ships. Turkey, Pakistan, and China have also established communication channels with Tehran.
The Strait of Hormuz is not only crucial for hydrocarbons but also serves as the primary supply route for states like Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. The disruption has forced companies to shift to more expensive, land-based transport routes through Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, adding to logistical challenges and costs.
FAQ
- What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz? It’s a vital waterway for global oil trade, with approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passing through it.
- Which countries are currently being granted access? Primarily vessels heading to or originating from China, India, and Pakistan.
- Is the Strait of Hormuz completely closed? No, Iran is allowing selective passage based on criteria related to potential benefits to the US and Israel.
- What is the impact of the disruptions on oil prices? Disruptions have led to increased oil prices and higher insurance premiums for shipping.
Pro Tip: Monitor maritime intelligence sources like MarineTraffic and Kpler for real-time updates on vessel movements and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Did you recognize? The “phantom fleet” refers to older vessels operating under questionable flags and often lacking proper insurance, used to circumvent sanctions and transport oil.
Stay informed about the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for global trade and energy markets. Explore our other articles on geopolitical risks and maritime security for further insights.
