Protests have gripped Iran for more than two weeks, initially sparked by rising inflation and currency devaluation. What began as demonstrations led by shopkeepers and the poor demanding economic survival has broadened to include calls for democratic freedoms and an end to the Islamic republic. Support for Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the deposed Shah, has grown among sizable crowds since Thursday.
A Crisis of Legitimacy
Iran’s leadership is facing multiple crises: economic hardship, political unrest, and environmental issues. These challenges are worsened by Western sanctions and stalled negotiations with Washington. The regime’s legitimacy is deeply questioned as it simultaneously prepares for potential conflict with Israel and the US.
Security forces, historically used to suppress dissent, remain loyal to the regime. An internet blackout is in place, raising concerns that the actual death toll is significantly higher than reported. On Friday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismissed protesters as “vandals.” Security forces claim protesters have committed offenses such as killing police officers and setting state property ablaze, threatening the death penalty for those deemed “rioters” working with foreign enemies.
Escalating Regional Risks
The internal pressure on Iran is compounded by the risk of wider conflict. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened action if protesters are harmed. Israel, with a history of seeking to destabilize the regime, may see the protests as an opportunity to resume strikes.
While Iran’s leaders have experience navigating chaos, their options are limited. Attempts to forge an alliance with China and Russia based on an anti-Western stance have so far proven unsuccessful, as evidenced by the fate of their allies in Syria and Venezuela despite backing from Beijing and Moscow.
Iran could choose to increase security measures both domestically and abroad, potentially escalating tensions with the US and Israel, or even pursuing a nuclear weapon. However, such actions are described as “potentially suicidal.” A more sustainable solution, according to analysis, lies in a new social contract between the state and its citizens.
Paths to Reform
The current system is unable to provide economic welfare, the middle class is shrinking, and corruption is widespread. The security apparatus is no longer effectively protecting the country. A new social contract would require economic development, improved governance, expanded political rights, and a shift in power away from ideologues towards technocrats.
Iran’s president has responded to the protests with calls for national dialogue, replacing the central bank governor and approving a small monthly stipend for all households, but these measures are considered insufficient. Activist groups emphasize that any new social contract must be determined by the Iranian people themselves.
Proposed solutions include a transition away from the Islamic republic, a new political system shaped by the current ruling elite, or a referendum on a revised constitution, potentially abolishing the role of the Supreme Leader. Sustainable reform would ultimately require a renewed diplomatic effort with the US, involving Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
Frequently Asked Questions
What initially triggered the protests in Iran?
The protests were triggered by a surge of inflation and currency devaluation, initially leading shopkeepers and the poor to demand basic economic survival.
What is the position of the US and Israel regarding the protests?
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack if protesters are harmed, and Israel may use the protests as an opportunity to resume strikes.
What is described as the most sustainable way forward for Iran?
A new social contract between the state and Iranian citizens is described as the most sustainable way forward, offering economic development, improved governance, and expanded freedoms.
Given the complex interplay of internal pressures and external threats, what kind of future awaits Iran and its people?
