The central question in Iran today is not who might succeed Supreme Leader Ali Jamenei, but rather who is best positioned to manage that succession should the leadership position become unexpectedly vacant. This question is significant because, in the Islamic Republic, such a transition would be more than a constitutional matter. it would be a test of cohesion among institutions, factions, and security apparatuses—a test that has already begun.
Understanding Iran’s Power Structure
Power in Iran functions as a system of arbitration, relying on a network of formal bodies and informal centers of influence. Should a transition occur, the Assembly of Experts would formally validate the successor, but the ultimate decision would be conditioned by the balance of power between the Leader’s Office, security forces, the clerical establishment, and political arbitration institutions.
Key Players in a Potential Transition
Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is currently a particularly relevant figure. His value lies in his ability to facilitate communication between security concerns, political management, and external engagement. In a transition scenario, individuals with his capacity to maintain order are valued more for their ability to coordinate than for personal ambition.
Similarly, Ali Shamjani, Secretary of the National Defense Council since August 2025, is seen as a priority for the system, emphasizing operational experience and coordination over past factional rivalries. Shamkhani serves as a link between military, strategic, and diplomatic spheres, suggesting a focus on preventing command vacuums and ensuring clear decision-making in defense, regional crises, and international negotiations should a transition occur.
Bagher Ghalibaf, as President of Parliament, embodies the visible dimension of institutionalized security power. He translates security logic into political discourse and internal order, and signals intentions externally. His role would be crucial in any transition, offering the system something it values in critical moments: the ability to manage a narrative of stability while reinforcing control mechanisms.
Sadegh Larijani, Secretary of the Council of Discernment, is important for his institutional arbitration capacity. He operates within bodies that filter, correct, or block decisions to maintain regime coherence. The familial relationship between Sadegh and Ali Larijani highlights the importance of long-term trust networks, where kinship, experience, and access are forms of political capital.
Above all these figures looms the less visible but most sensitive factor: the network of loyalties surrounding the leader and, in particular, the influence of the security apparatus, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as an indispensable actor. The Pasdaran do not necessarily publicly “choose,” but no orderly transition is possible without their acceptance. Their primary interest is to guarantee continuity, protect their economic and political privileges, and prevent a transition from becoming a negotiation about the system itself.
Potential International Implications
Such a realignment could only unlock the international situation for Iran to a limited extent. If the elite’s central objective is to preserve continuity, the scope for major reconciliation will remain narrow. A controlled transition could facilitate tactical de-escalation and partial relief, but not necessarily a strategic shift. Even when power changes hands in Iran, the first priority is to demonstrate that nothing essential has changed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus regarding a potential change in leadership in Iran?
The central question is not who will replace Ali Jamenei, but who is positioned to manage the succession process if the position becomes vacant.
What role does the Assembly of Experts play in a succession?
The Assembly of Experts has the formal role of validating a successor, but the actual decision will be influenced by the balance of power between various institutions and factions.
Which figures are currently considered important in managing a potential transition?
Ali Larijani, Ali Shamjani, Bagher Ghalibaf, and Sadegh Larijani are all identified as key figures due to their positions and abilities to navigate the complex power dynamics within Iran.
Given the complex interplay of institutions and individuals, how might Iran navigate a leadership transition while maintaining stability?
