As the war with Iran continues and becomes more costly, discussions of a potential cease-fire have begun in Washington. After threatening to bomb Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. President Donald Trump extended a grace period to April 6 to explore a negotiated solution. The Trump administration delivered a 15-point plan for a cease-fire to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries, reportedly demanding unconditional surrender.
Here’s not the first instance of Trump ordering attacks on Iran, nor the first time he has attempted to quickly de-escalate hostilities on his own terms. In June 2025, following 12 days of intense bombing, Trump announced an immediate cease-fire, claiming the U.S. Had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. That cease-fire did not require negotiations; Washington communicated it would halt bombing and restrain Israel, and Iran agreed to stop retaliating.
However, ending the current war will be complex. While Trump believes he can dictate the terms of peace, the current conflict and leadership in Tehran differ from those in June 2025. Iran has dismissed Trump’s 15-point plan and presented its own counterproposals. Unless both sides compromise, a deadlock will likely persist, potentially leading to a U.S. Ground invasion as thousands of marines are deployed to the Middle East.
No Easy Out
In June 2025, Trump’s surgical strikes on Iran were brief and focused on depleting Iran’s nuclear program. The message from Washington was that the U.S. Was reluctantly drawn into the war by a surprise Israeli attack and sought to end the conflict by destroying key Iranian nuclear sites. Iran responded with a strike on the largest U.S. Military base in the region, in Qatar, but carefully calibrated to avoid American fatalities and maintain regional relationships.
This war differs, as the United States and Israel have been working together from the start. Trump initially encouraged Iranians to “take over” their government, suggesting regime change was a goal. In response, Iran has launched more forceful attacks, including drones and missiles targeting Israel and neighboring states. Critically, Iran has imposed a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy prices and threatening to draw NATO countries like Turkey into the conflict.
Iran is also expanding its network of allies. Unlike in June 2025, Iran is using armed groups across the Middle East to escalate the war on multiple fronts, including joint operations with Hezbollah in Lebanon and support for armed groups in Iraq. Iran may also request that the Houthis in Yemen close the Bab el Mandeb Strait, impacting Saudi Arabia.
As more actors become involved, a cease-fire will be increasingly challenging to achieve. Even a truce to address the global energy crisis could be undermined by the ongoing war in Lebanon between Israel, and Hezbollah.
Unless both sides make concessions, the deadlock will continue.
The U.S. And Israeli killing of high-level Iranian officials further complicates a cease-fire. The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has elevated his son Mojtaba, who is aligned with more confrontational elements within Iran’s security apparatus. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a close ally of the novel supreme leader, stated, “We believe the aggressor must be punished and taught a lesson that will deter them from attacking Iran again.”
Israel’s assassination of Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief, also reduces the likelihood of a quick cease-fire. Larijani was known for bridging divides within the Iranian system and advocating for moderate deal-making with the United States. His replacement is a more hard-line former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iran appears to believe it must inflict enough damage to convince Israel and the United States it will not capitulate. Iranian leaders are likely to reject a cease-fire similar to those in Lebanon and Gaza, which allowed Israel to resume strikes. Without security guarantees and economic incentives, Iran is likely to prolong the conflict.
Getting to Yes
A mediating coalition led by Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey must pressure Iran and the United States to expedite a cease-fire. This could be achieved by leveraging the shared global need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize energy prices. The coalition could offer assistance in clearing mines and providing naval escorts, but only after a sustainable cease-fire is reached.
The coalition must also convince Tehran to scale back attacks on its neighbors. As Islamic-majority states, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey can collectively press Iran’s leaders to cooperate. China, which purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil, could also leverage its economic influence to de-escalate.
The coalition should urge both Washington and Tehran to be realistic in their demands. The White House is making a mistake by tying cease-fire negotiations to a broad agreement covering nuclear enrichment, missile restrictions, and regional support for armed groups. Detailed negotiations should follow a cessation of hostilities, not precede it.
Tehran is wary of allowing its adversaries to regroup and rearm.
The United States must acknowledge that a sustainable cease-fire requires genuine negotiation, not unilateral imposition. We see unrealistic to expect Iran to restrict its missile capabilities during a war in which they are its primary retaliatory tool. Tehran must also accept removing military threats to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and abandoning demands for reparations.
A compromise could include a withdrawal of U.S. Troops and warships massed near Iran. While Iran is unlikely to trust guarantees against future attacks, endorsement of a cease-fire by major powers like China, Russia, and the European Union could add credibility.
Tehran will also seek economic incentives for reconstruction. While major sanctions relief is unlikely, the U.S. Could offer some economic breathing room, such as waivers for Iranian oil purchases. Access to frozen assets for energy sector reconstruction, similar to a mechanism used in Switzerland during Trump’s first term, could also be considered.
A transit tax for ships through the Strait of Hormuz may be necessary, as Iran has already begun imposing such fees. The U.S. Could allow Oman and Iran to operate a tollbooth, with funds earmarked for regional reconstruction.
A phased U.S. Military withdrawal and economic incentives, alongside the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, could build confidence. Iran could create a humanitarian corridor for trapped ships and essential goods, an initiative already supported by the United Nations and the European Union.
a cease-fire must lead to longer-term negotiations between the United States and Iran to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and end the enmity between the two countries. The process needs to be revived, as negotiations in February seemed to be on the verge of a breakthrough.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current status of the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran has imposed a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by threatening and, in some cases, attacking ships in transit.
What was the outcome of the cease-fire in June 2025?
President Trump announced an immediate cease-fire after 12 days of bombing, claiming the U.S. Had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. This cease-fire did not require genuine negotiations.
What is the 15-point plan proposed by the Trump administration?
The 15-point plan, delivered via Pakistani intermediaries, reportedly amounts to a demand for Iran’s unconditional surrender.
Given the escalating tensions and complex geopolitical factors, what steps might be necessary to prevent further escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran?
