Russia’s Unexpected Gains Amidst the Iran Conflict
The war in Iran has resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths, displaced hundreds of thousands, sent global oil prices soaring, and created a political crisis. But for one nation, the chaos has created opportunity. Russia has emerged from the first week of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran as an early winner, seemingly able to profit from the secondary economic and geopolitical effects of the war while others bear the costs.
A Long-Standing Relationship with Tehran
Russia has maintained a friendly relationship with Tehran, condemning the U.S. And Israel’s attack on Iran, calling it a “pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression.” Vladimir Putin also criticized the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader as a “cynical murder.” While potentially losing a powerful ally, Moscow may benefit in the short term, analysts say.
“Putin and his advisors have likely determined that war in Iran serves Russia’s interests in the short term: higher energy prices, global distraction from a Ukraine war that Putin is not ready to settle, and America at risk of entrapment in another Middle Eastern quagmire,” says Robert Person, nonresident Senior Fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
U.S. Lifts Restrictions on Russian Oil
Russia has been under heavy sanctions since its invasion of Ukraine, including export controls and an oil price cap. President Trump previously imposed an additional 25% import tariff on India over its import of Russian oil. Though, in response to rising gas prices, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a 30-day waiver on the tariff and is considering further lifting of sanctions.
“Yesterday, the Treasury agreed to let our allies in India start buying Russian oil that was already on the water,” Bessent told Fox Business. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claims there is “a significant increase in demand” for Russian energy products “in connection with the war in Iran.”
Rising Oil Prices: A Windfall for Moscow
Sanctions and low oil prices had given Russia’s energy industry a poor outlook. Now, due to the disruption to global oil supplies caused by the Iran war, oil prices have spiked, and Russia is one of the few oil-producing nations ready to benefit. Before the attacks, Russia sold its oil at a discount of $10-$13 a barrel; now, it’s selling at a premium of $4-$5, according to Reuters.
This combination of higher prices and the disruption to Gulf countries’ ability to supply markets in Asia could provide a windfall to Moscow, just a year after its oil and gas revenue dropped to its lowest levels since 2020.
Ukraine’s Patriots and Russia’s Advantage
The Iran war may also impact Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Ukraine was facing a shortage of U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems, and the U.S. Is now using those same missiles to defend against Iranian attacks. European Union Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said the outlook for Ukraine was “critical,” and the E.U. Would need to “develop missile production in a very urgent and rapid way.”
Russia has used Iranian-made Shahed drones against Ukraine, prompting Ukraine to develop cheap interceptor drones known as the Sting system. Ukraine will assist the Gulf in taking down Iranian drones by providing this technology.
‘Degrading America’s Projection of Power’
Reports indicate Russia has provided Iran with intelligence on U.S. Military assets. White House officials have not denied this, but have downplayed Russia’s influence. President Trump snapped at a reporter when asked about Russia’s reported role, calling it a “stupid question.”
“Recent reports that Russia has provided Iran with intelligence used to target American forces in the region are consistent with the latter effort: anything to complicate or degrade America’s projection of power shifts the relative geopolitical balance in Moscow’s favor,” Person says.
FAQ
What is Russia’s primary benefit from the Iran conflict?
Higher energy prices and a distraction from the war in Ukraine are key benefits for Russia.
Is the U.S. Lifting sanctions on Russian oil?
The U.S. Has issued a temporary waiver on some sanctions and is considering further lifting of restrictions in response to rising gas prices.
How is the Iran war impacting Ukraine?
The conflict is diverting U.S. Patriot missile systems away from Ukraine, potentially weakening its air defenses.
