Just over a week ago, a situation months in the making unfolded: Israel and the US began strikes against Iran. The regime has been effectively decapitated with the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, but has not yet fallen.
Experts suggest the conflict is far from over. Gulf countries and Kurdish militias are now involved, and European allies like France are sending military ships to the Middle East.
Conflicting Objectives
Peter Wijninga, a defense specialist, believes the end of the war is not in sight until the US and Israel are satisfied with the outcome. “What that precisely means, we don’t know. You hear conflicting statements from the US.”
President Trump initially stated the strikes aimed to overthrow the regime and called for an uprising. However, Minister Hegseth of Defense later clarified the operation’s goal was to destroy Iranian attack rockets. Minister Rubio of Foreign Affairs also indicated regime change wasn’t the primary objective.
“It’s incredibly confusing when you listen to Trump or his ministers,” says Middle East journalist Abdou Bouzerda. “It seems the Americans don’t really have a plan for what comes next. They’re focused on bombing right now.”
Israel has expanded the offensive to Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah fighters. Bouzerda believes this demonstrates a clearer strategy. “Israel aims to further weaken the Iranian regime by targeting its allies.”
The US and Israel can continue the war they initiated, Wijninga expects. They are well-equipped and trained, though their supplies are not unlimited.
The biggest challenges lie with Iran, as the US and Israeli strikes destroy launch facilities, drones, and storage sites. “And they won’t easily be resupplied by their ally Russia, which needs the ammunition itself for the war in Ukraine.”
If you don’t really have a goal, then you can’t formulate a timeline.
The conflict has become a war of numbers, Bouzerda says. “You see Iran launching an unprecedented number of rockets and drones. There’s a price tag attached to that.”
The US war in Iran is costing the American treasury almost 800 million euros per day, according to a CSIS calculation.
Hope for Iranians
The US must finish the war it started, Wijninga says, referencing Colin Powell’s statement, if you break it, you own it.
How long the US and Israel can sustain the conflict depends on their resolve. “And whether part of the regular army will turn against the Iranian regime and side with the people.”
The EU stands on the sidelines, but will inevitably pay the price, Bouzerda expects.
“There may come a time when the EU takes more initiative, as seen with allies like France. But only because their own populations will complain about rising oil and food prices.”
Europe will likely align with America, purely out of self-interest, especially economic. Simultaneously, Bouzerda sees a role for Europe in greater diplomacy with Gulf countries.
