Iran’s strategy, honed since its 1979 revolution, centers on leveraging American democracy against itself. This approach was first demonstrated with the seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days – an act that damaged Iran’s international standing but ultimately contributed to the end of Jimmy Carter’s presidency.
A History of Targeting American Public Opinion
Iran has repeatedly demonstrated a preference for undermining American resolve rather than engaging in direct military conflict. In April 1983, a suicide bombing orchestrated by Iran, through its proxy Hezbollah, targeted the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, resulting in 63 deaths, including 17 Americans. President Reagan, in his diary, noted the attack and expressed concern about declining public support for intervention in Lebanon, observing a “deeply buried isolationist sentiment” within the U.S.
Later that year, in October, Hezbollah carried out simultaneous truck bomb attacks that killed 241 American service members and 58 French soldiers. Following the attacks, President Reagan questioned the message a withdrawal from Lebanon would send, but ultimately ordered a complete withdrawal four months later under pressure from Congress.
This pattern continued in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. Fearing a stable, democratic Iraq, Iran reportedly supported various factions to create chaos and destabilize the country, contributing to as many as 1,000 American deaths through the apply of improvised explosive devices. According to declassified interrogation records, a Shiite-militia leader, Qais al-Khazali, admitted to American captors that Iran supported groups fueling disorder.
The Current Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz
Today, facing a threat to its own existence, Iran is again attempting to erode American public support for military action. Rather than direct confrontation, Iran is now focusing on disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy corridor. Iranian actions have reduced ship traffic through the strait to single digits on some days and attacks on commercial vessels have driven up insurance costs to as much as $5 million per ship. Oil prices have increased by more than 40 percent since February 28, with Brent crude peaking near $120 a barrel, adding a dollar to the price of gasoline for American consumers.
President Trump has threatened retaliation if Iran does not reopen the strait, but doing so risks escalating the conflict and potentially incurring significant casualties. Public opinion on the conflict is divided: nine in 10 Democrats and most independents oppose the strikes, while approximately 50 percent of Americans are opposed according to polls taken between February 27 and March 11. Within the Republican party, support is split, with 90 percent of MAGA-aligned Republicans supporting the war, compared to about 54 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.
Iranian officials are actively attempting to exploit these divisions, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating that “Trump has turned ‘America First’ into ‘Israel First,’ which always means ‘America last.’” Iranian state TV has also amplified commentary from critics of the war, like Tucker Carlson, and shared an interview with Joe Kent, who previously blamed “high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media” for the conflict.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Iran’s initial demonstration of its strategy against the U.S.?
The seizing of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days, was Iran’s first major demonstration of its strategy to exploit American democracy against itself.
What happened in Beirut in 1983?
In April 1983, Iran, through Hezbollah, carried out a suicide bombing against the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, killing 63 people, including 17 Americans. Later that year, Hezbollah carried out truck bomb attacks that killed 241 American service members and 58 French soldiers.
How is Iran currently attempting to influence the conflict?
Iran is currently disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, attacking commercial vessels, and driving up oil prices in an attempt to make the war unpopular with the American public.
Given this history, is the current situation a repeat of past patterns, and will domestic pressures ultimately dictate the course of this conflict?
