Rising Diesel Prices: What Drivers Can Expect in the Coming Years
Starting January, diesel fuel in Italy will be subject to a tax realignment that adds €0.0405 per litre. When the 22 % VAT is included, a 50‑litre fill‑up will cost roughly €2.47 more than today. For a typical driver who tops up twice a month, that translates into an extra €81 annually.
While the government promised a matching cut in gasoline excise, the discount has so far remained “on paper.” In May, a €0.015 hike in diesel excise caused an immediate price jump, whereas the same reduction for gasoline produced only marginal savings at the pump.
Real‑world example: The commuter in Milan
Giulia, a daily commuter driving a diesel‑powered hatchback, logs about 30 km each workday. With the new tax, her yearly fuel cost climbs from €1,200 to roughly €1,280 – a 6 % increase that squeezes her household budget.
Auto Liability Insurance (RC Auto) – Premiums Set to Surge
An amendment to the omnibus budget bill raises the insurance levy for driver‑injury and roadside assistance from 2.5 % to 12.5 % for policies issued from 1 January 2026. The state expects to collect an additional €115 million, a cost that will be passed on to policyholders.
According to IVASS data, the average RC auto premium has already jumped 17.5 % since 2022, moving from €353 in January 2022 to €415 in Q2 2025 – an extra €62 per year for the average driver.
Case study: Small business fleet
A delivery company in Bologna with 12 diesel vans saw its insurance expense rise from €4,200 to €5,000 in the last 12 months. By switching to a higher deductible and investing in telematics, the firm reclaimed roughly €300 in savings.
Traffic Fines: The Unlikely “Break” in a Rising Cost Landscape
The latest “Milleproroghe” decree froze traffic‑fine amounts that would otherwise have risen by about 2 % on 1 January. Without the freeze, fines for illegal parking would have jumped from €42 to €43, and penalties for speeding over 60 km/h would have increased from €845 to €862.
This marks the third consecutive suspension of fine hikes, following a 15.6 % freeze in 2023 and a similar pause for 2025. The last actual increase dated back to 2019 (+2.2 %).
Why the freeze matters for drivers
For everyday motorists, the difference between a €250 fine for running a red light versus €255 may seem minimal, but over a year, these savings add up—especially for professional drivers who face multiple infractions.
Looking Ahead: Emerging Trends Shaping the Italian Automotive Market
- Electrification push: The European Commission’s Fit‑for‑55 package encourages a shift toward electric vehicles, which could mitigate diesel‑related cost pressures.
- Smart insurance models: Usage‑based insurance (UBI) is gaining traction, offering lower rates for low‑mileage drivers.
- Dynamic fuel taxation: Some EU members are piloting fuel‑tax brackets that adjust based on carbon intensity, a model Italy may adopt.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Will diesel prices continue to rise after 2026?
- Yes, unless the government introduces new subsidies or tax cuts, the upward trend is expected to persist.
- How can I reduce my RC auto premium?
- Consider higher deductibles, bundle policies, use telematics, and compare quotes annually.
- Are the traffic‑fine freezes permanent?
- No, they are temporary measures tied to the current economic climate; future governments may lift the freeze.
- Is switching to a petrol or hybrid car financially smarter?
- Petrol taxes are currently lower, but hybrid and electric vehicles benefit from incentives and lower running costs in the long run.
Take Action Today
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