US Jobs Report Delayed: What Investors Necessitate to Know
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, at 13:30 GMT. This report, a key indicator of the US economy’s health, is expected to significantly impact market volatility, particularly around the US Dollar (USD).
Understanding Nonfarm Payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls measure the number of US workers across various sectors, excluding those in agriculture, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, and the self-employed. This figure represents approximately 80 percent of the workers contributing to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), offering valuable insights into economic conditions. Increases in employment generally suggest business growth and increased disposable incomes.
The Impact of the Government Shutdown
The release of the January NFP report was initially postponed due to the recent partial government shutdown. However, with the US House passing a package to end the shutdown, the BLS has confirmed the data will be published on Wednesday.
Market Expectations for January 2026
Investors are currently anticipating a rise of 70,000 in NFP, following a 50,000 increase in December. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain stable at 4.4%. However, projections suggest a softening in annual wage inflation, decreasing to 3.6% from 3.8%.
Analyst Outlooks
TD Securities analysts predict a more subdued job gain of 45,000 for January. They anticipate strength in healthcare and construction, with a modest increase in government employment. They likewise expect the Unemployment Rate to hold steady at 4.4%, indicating a balanced labor market.
How Will This Affect EUR/USD?
The USD began February on a strong footing, influenced by the nomination of a new Fed chair and volatility in precious metals and stock markets. The USD Index rose 0.5% in the first week of February. The NFP report could further solidify this trend.
Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Lisa Cook and Governor Philip Jefferson, have indicated a stabilizing labor market. The CME Group FedWatch Tool currently shows a 15% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut in March.
A weaker-than-expected NFP reading, below 30,000, coupled with a rise in the Unemployment Rate, could pressure the USD and potentially boost EUR/USD. Conversely, a figure at or above market expectations could reinforce the likelihood of another policy hold.
The Importance of Wage Inflation
Investors will closely monitor the Average Hourly Earnings component of the report. Lower-than-expected wage growth could limit USD gains, even with a positive headline NFP number. Danske Bank analysts suggest that softer wage growth could negatively impact consumer activity and encourage a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Technical Outlook for EUR/USD
FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer notes that EUR/USD currently exhibits bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50 and the price fluctuating above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Key resistance levels are seen at 1.2000, 1.2080, and 1.2160, whereas support lies at 1.1680, 1.1620-1.1600.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States and the most heavily traded currency globally, accounting for over 88% of all foreign exchange turnover.
Monetary policy, shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed), is the most key factor impacting the USD’s value. The Fed aims for price stability and full employment through interest rate adjustments.
Quantitative easing (QE), where the Fed prints more Dollars to buy bonds, usually leads to a weaker USD.
Quantitative tightening (QT), the reverse of QE, is generally positive for the US Dollar.
Disclaimer: This information is based on data available as of February 11, 2026, and is subject to change. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
