Kremlin’s War Aims: Beyond Donbas, a Broader Power Grab

The Kremlin’s Shifting Sands: Beyond Donbas, What Does Putin Really Want?

For over a decade, the narrative emanating from Moscow regarding Ukraine has been a complex web of justifications, shifting goals, and outright fabrications. While current negotiations appear fixated on the Donbas region, framing a potential land swap as a path to peace, a deeper examination reveals a far more ambitious – and dangerous – agenda. The focus on Donbas isn’t the problem *to* be solved; it’s a smokescreen *for* the real objectives.

<h2>From “Protecting Russians” to a New World Order</h2>
<p>Initially, the Kremlin’s justification for intervention centered on protecting ethnic Russians and Russian speakers from a supposed “fascist” regime in Kyiv. This narrative, amplified by state-controlled media, painted a picture of widespread persecution and genocide. However, this claim, demonstrably false, served a dual purpose: galvanizing domestic support and creating a pretext for military action. As Putin himself stated in 2022, the operation aimed to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.”</p>

<p>But the Kremlin’s ambitions didn’t stop at protecting its diaspora. A parallel narrative emerged, portraying Ukraine and Russia as historically inseparable “brotherly nations,” part of a “triune state” with Belarus. This argument wasn’t about regional autonomy; it was about restoring Ukraine to a subordinate position within Russia’s sphere of influence. The infamous, since-deleted RIA Novosti article outlining the war’s goal as returning Ukraine to the “Russian world” laid bare this ambition.</p>

<h3>The Internal vs. External Messaging Divide</h3>
<p>Crucially, the messaging differed depending on the audience. For domestic consumption, the narrative emphasized the threat of “fascism” and the need to protect Russian speakers. Internationally, the Kremlin began to frame the conflict as a response to NATO expansion and Western interference, alleging a desire to “destroy our traditional values.” Patriarch Kirill’s pronouncements linking the invasion to opposition to “gay parades” exemplified this attempt to appeal to conservative sentiments globally.</p>

<p>This multifaceted approach – a buffet of rationales – highlights a key characteristic of Kremlin strategy: plausible deniability and the ability to adapt the narrative to suit different audiences. It’s a deliberate attempt to muddy the waters and prevent a unified international response.</p>

<h2>Beyond Ukraine: Russia’s Broader Geopolitical Goals</h2>
<p>The war in Ukraine isn’t solely about Ukraine. It’s inextricably linked to Russia’s broader geopolitical ambitions. Putin and his allies have repeatedly alluded to Russia’s status as a “country-civilization” and a “great millennial power” with a unique historical mission. This rhetoric suggests a desire to reshape the global order, challenging the dominance of the United States and establishing a multipolar world where Russia plays a leading role.</p>

<p>As journalist Mikhail Zygar has noted, Putin envisions a “new Yalta,” a re-division of spheres of influence reminiscent of the post-World War II era. This ambition extends beyond Ukraine’s borders, encompassing a desire to exert greater control over neighboring countries and reassert Russia’s influence in Europe and beyond. The recent strengthening of ties with countries like Iran and North Korea further underscores this ambition.</p>

<h2>The Contradictions Reveal the Truth</h2>
<p>The inherent contradictions within the Kremlin’s narratives are telling. Putin simultaneously claims Ukraine is a brotherly nation deserving reunification *and* a fabricated entity with no legitimate claim to sovereignty. This inconsistency isn’t a flaw in the messaging; it’s a deliberate strategy to keep options open and exploit vulnerabilities. It allows the Kremlin to appeal to different constituencies and justify any course of action.</p>

<h3>Did you know?</h3>
<p>Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, both Sweden and Finland abandoned decades of neutrality and applied to join NATO, directly contradicting Putin’s claim that the war was intended to counter NATO expansion.</p>

<h2>What Does This Mean for the Future?</h2>
<p>The fixation on the Donbas as a potential solution is a dangerous distraction. Even if Ukraine were to cede territory, it wouldn’t address the underlying causes of the conflict. Putin’s true objectives – dominating Ukraine, restoring Russia’s regional influence, and challenging the existing global order – remain unchanged. </p>

<p>Looking ahead, several trends are likely to emerge:</p>
<ul>
    <li><strong>Continued Hybrid Warfare:</strong> Expect a continued reliance on disinformation, cyberattacks, and economic coercion alongside conventional military tactics.</li>
    <li><strong>Increased Geopolitical Alignment:</strong> Russia will likely deepen its partnerships with countries that share its anti-Western sentiments, creating a new axis of power.</li>
    <li><strong>Internal Repression:</strong> The Kremlin will likely intensify its crackdown on dissent and independent media within Russia to maintain control and suppress opposition to the war.</li>
    <li><strong>Prolonged Instability:</strong> Even if a ceasefire is reached, the underlying tensions and unresolved issues will likely lead to continued instability in the region.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Pro Tip</h2>
<p>When evaluating information about the Russia-Ukraine war, always consider the source. State-controlled media and propaganda outlets are likely to present a biased and distorted view of events. Seek out independent and credible sources for accurate reporting.</p>

<h2>FAQ: Understanding the Kremlin’s Narrative</h2>
<ul>
    <li><strong>Is Ukraine really controlled by Nazis?</strong> No. This is a false and baseless claim used by the Kremlin to justify its aggression.</li>
    <li><strong>Why does Russia claim Ukraine is historically part of Russia?</strong> This claim is based on a selective and distorted interpretation of history, ignoring Ukraine’s distinct cultural and national identity.</li>
    <li><strong>What is the “Russian world”?</strong> This is a concept used by the Kremlin to justify its intervention in neighboring countries, claiming a responsibility to protect and unite all Russian speakers and those who identify with Russian culture.</li>
    <li><strong>Is NATO expansion a legitimate concern for Russia?</strong> While Russia has expressed concerns about NATO expansion, its invasion of Ukraine has demonstrably proven that it was not the primary driver of the conflict.</li>
</ul>

<p>The path to peace in Ukraine doesn’t lie in territorial concessions. It requires a fundamental shift in the Kremlin’s thinking and a recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Until that happens, the conflict will continue to simmer, posing a threat to regional and global stability.</p>

<p><strong>Want to learn more?</strong> Explore our coverage of <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/topic/russia-ukraine-war">the Russia-Ukraine war</a> and <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/topic/russian-politics">Russian politics</a> for in-depth analysis and reporting.</p>