Lebanon on the Brink: Navigating a Precarious Path Between Hezbollah, Israel, and International Pressure
Lebanon finds itself at a critical juncture. President Joseph Aoun faces mounting pressure from the United States and Israel to address the presence and armament of Hezbollah, while simultaneously attempting to prevent a resurgence of internal conflict and secure much-needed international support. The coming months, marked by key diplomatic events, will likely determine whether Lebanon can navigate this treacherous landscape or succumb to further instability.
The Shifting Sands of the Ceasefire
The November 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, following weeks of intense cross-border exchanges sparked by the Israel-Palestine conflict, remains fragile. Despite the agreement outlining Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River and Israel’s troop withdrawal from Lebanese territory, consistent violations by Israel – including near-daily bombardments and continued occupation of five points within Lebanon – are undermining the truce. This one-sided implementation of the ceasefire is a core grievance for Lebanese officials.
Recent data from the United Nations shows a significant increase in ceasefire violations since January 2025, with over 11,000 documented incidents as of February 2026. This escalating tension is compounded by the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024, a move that, while weakening the group, also fueled anxieties about potential retaliation and further escalation.
US Pressure and the LAF’s Dilemma
The United States is actively pushing for Hezbollah’s disarmament, a contentious issue within Lebanon where the group enjoys considerable support, particularly among the Shia community. The upcoming visit of Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Chief of Staff Rodolphe Haykal to Washington, D.C. in February, though previously delayed due to critical comments about Israel, is seen as a pivotal moment. Haykal is expected to present a plan for phase two of Hezbollah’s disarmament, focusing on the area between the Litani and Awali Rivers.
However, the LAF faces significant challenges. It is currently underfunded, underequipped, and undermanned, making a military confrontation with Hezbollah or a robust security operation in southern Lebanon exceedingly difficult. Experts like Imad Salamey of the Lebanese American University emphasize that Lebanon is being asked to deliver security outcomes without reciprocal guarantees from Israel.
The Paris Conference: A Plea for International Support
The international conference in Paris on March 5th represents a crucial opportunity for Lebanon to garner support for the LAF and pressure Israel to adhere to the ceasefire. Lebanon is hoping to leverage its relationships with countries like Saudi Arabia, France, Qatar, and Egypt to influence the US and convince Israel to de-escalate. The goal is to secure financial and material assistance for the LAF, enabling them to better secure the border and potentially facilitate a more peaceful disarmament process.
The Risk of Internal Conflict: A Looming Threat
A major concern is the potential for a direct confrontation between the LAF and Hezbollah. Such a clash could reignite the sectarian tensions that fueled Lebanon’s devastating 1975-1990 civil war. Analysts, however, believe the LAF will prioritize avoiding civil strife, even if it means a slower, more cautious approach to disarmament. Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center suggests that increased support for the LAF could lead to more assertive action in securing arms caches, but not at the expense of national unity.
Hezbollah’s Position: No Disarmament Under Fire
Hezbollah remains steadfast in its refusal to disarm while Israel continues its attacks and occupation of Lebanese territory. The group’s supporters criticize the Lebanese government for its perceived ineffectiveness in securing concessions from Israel. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has publicly stated that no further concessions will be made under current conditions.
This stance is rooted in a sense of vulnerability and a belief that Lebanon is being asked to unilaterally address security concerns without addressing the root causes of instability – namely, Israel’s ongoing aggression and occupation.
Looking Ahead: A Path Forward?
The situation in Lebanon is incredibly delicate. A successful resolution requires a multi-faceted approach: sustained international pressure on Israel to abide by the ceasefire, robust support for the LAF, and a willingness from all parties to engage in meaningful dialogue. Without these elements, Lebanon risks sliding further into instability, potentially triggering a new cycle of violence.
FAQ
- What is the current status of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah?
- The ceasefire is largely one-sided, with Israel continuing to violate it through near-daily attacks and occupation of Lebanese territory.
- What role is the US playing in the Lebanon crisis?
- The US is primarily focused on pushing for Hezbollah’s disarmament and providing support to the Lebanese Armed Forces.
- What are the main challenges facing the Lebanese Armed Forces?
- The LAF is underfunded, underequipped, and undermanned, making it difficult to effectively secure the border and confront potential threats.
- What is the significance of the Paris conference?
- The conference is a crucial opportunity for Lebanon to garner international support for the LAF and pressure Israel to adhere to the ceasefire.
Explore further: Read our in-depth analysis of the impact of regional conflicts on Lebanese stability and the challenges facing the Lebanese Armed Forces.
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