The annual Leonid meteor shower will peak on November 17, bringing roughly 15 shooting stars per hour under ideal conditions. Space reported that this year marks a quiet period for the display, contrasting sharply with the massive meteor storms recorded decades ago.
When Will the Leonids Peak?
According to the International Meteor Organization’s calendar, the shower reaches its maximum at 23:45 UTC on Nov. 17. Margaret Campbell-Brown and Peter Brown, meteor experts for the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, predict that the peak will occur slightly later at 00:00 hours UTC on Nov. 18. Russian meteor expert Mikhail Maslov calculates the peak earlier at 16:00 UTC on Nov. 17. Several weaker encounters with older debris trails are expected between Nov. 17 and 19.
What Causes the Meteor Shower?
The Leonids originate from comet Tempel-Tuttle, which orbits the sun every 33⅓ years. The comet last swept through the inner solar system in 1998, leaving a dense trail of dusty debris in its wake. Universe Today said that the parent comet reaches perihelion 0.975 Astronomical Units from the sun just inside Earth’s orbit once again on May 20, 2031.
Why Is This Year So Quiet?
Comet Tempel-Tuttle was 1.84 billion miles from the sun in September 2014, reaching its furthest point. It has spent the last dozen years slowly approaching the inner solar system. Space reported that the comet is still 1.11 billion miles from the sun, well beyond the orbit of Saturn.
This distance means Earth is missing the fresh dust trails that produce major storms. Observers can expect at best 10 to 15 meteors per hour, with longer stretches of inactivity.
What Happened During Past Storms?
Sixty years ago, in 1966, anticipation ran high following an unexpected surge of activity the previous year. “. . . the position of the comet is roughly what it was in 1833. So, a dramatic shower like the one that occurred in that year may yet be in the offing for 1966,” Dr. Kenneth L. Franklin, chief scientist at New York's Hayden Planetarium, said.
Thirteen amateur astronomers on Kitt Peak in southern Arizona saw Leonids falling at a rate of 40 per second, totaling 144,000 per hour.
When Is the Next Major Outburst?
French meteor expert Jeremie Vaubaillon published a paper forecasting Leonid activity up to the year 2100. Jupiter is expected to alter the orbit of comet Tempel-Tuttle in 2029, making a repeat of the 1966 storm unlikely through the early 22nd century. Vaubaillon expects the next big outburst in the year 2034, when rates could reach up to 2,000 per hour.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does the name Leonids come from?
The radiant point where the meteors seem to fan out is located within the constellation of Leo the Lion, specifically near the backward question mark pattern of stars known as The Sickle.
How fast do Leonid meteors travel?
Because the Leonids move in an orbit opposite to Earth, they slam into the atmosphere nearly head-on at velocities of 45 miles per second, producing very bright meteors with persistent trains.
Will the moon interfere with viewing this year?
The moon is at its first quarter phase, but it will set before 11 p.m. local time on Monday evening, leaving the rest of the night dark for skywatchers.
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