Marine Le Pen stands between 35% and 37% in voting intentions for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to a Toluna Harris Interactive survey published on October 12 and covered by Il Messaggero. The data places the Rassemblement National figure clearly ahead across all five tested candidate combinations, even as political opponents and campaign controversies occupy the national debate.
Toluna Harris Interactive Polling Data for 2027
The survey, conducted online between October 5 and October 8 among 2,004 registered voters for M6 and RTL, points to heavily polarized politics in France. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical left, trails in second place with 18% to 19% of the vote. Meanwhile, the political center faces internal competition. Édouard Philippe drops to 13% when Gabriel Attal runs simultaneously, but climbs to 17% if he stands as the sole centrist candidate. Gabriel Attal polls between 5% and 12%, Raphaël Glucksmann captures 10% to 11%, and the right-wing candidate Bruno Retailleau registers 7% to 10%.
Rassemblement National Second Round Simulations
Second round runoff simulations in the poll show Le Pen securing 67% against Mélenchon and 56% against Philippe. The findings represent voting intentions rather than final electoral forecasts, with abstention, blank ballots, and null votes accounting for 27% to 32% of the surveyed electorate. The figures indicate that opponents face a dual challenge: uniting fragmented factions to reach the runoff and building a platform that appeals beyond their traditional bases.
Mediapart Investigation Into Jordan Bardella
The sustained poll numbers for the far-right party persist despite an investigative report by Mediapart concerning Jordan Bardella. The media outlet attributed old antisemitic messages to the Rassemblement National figure, which he denies having written, denouncing them as fabricated. According to Gilles Ivaldi, a political scientist interviewed by Reuters, core party supporters remain focused on purchasing power, immigration, and security rather than the controversy. However, Ivaldi notes that the dispute could influence undecided voters during a potential second round.
Voter Perception of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella
A total of 51% of survey respondents state that Le Pen would make a good president, marking a six-point increase compared to previous measurements. Jordan Bardella reaches 47% on the same indicator. The findings suggest the central figures continue to absorb controversies without suffering immediate electoral damage among their core demographics.
Frequently Asked Questions About the 2027 French Presidential Poll
When was the Toluna Harris Interactive survey conducted?
The polling organization conducted the online survey between October 5 and October 8, with the results published on October 12.
How many registered voters participated in the survey?
The poll gathered responses from 2,004 individuals enrolled on the French electoral lists.
What were Le Pen’s second-round runoff percentages against specific rivals?
The simulations indicate Le Pen would achieve 67% against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and 56% against Édouard Philippe.
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