Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by seven percentage points in the Florida governor’s race, while Republican Ashley Moody holds a ten-point advantage over Democrat Angie Nixon in the U.S. Senate contest, according to a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey.
Florida’s general election is taking shape less than a month before voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026. The new polling from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, conducted for the NBC 6 and Telemundo Station Group, shows Republican candidates maintaining distinct advantages in the top statewide matchups.
In the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is ineligible to seek another term, Donalds stands at 48% compared to Jolly’s 41%.
Moody Leads Nixon in Senate Contest
In the U.S. Senate contest, Moody leads Nixon 50% to 40%, with independent candidate Neil Gillespie drawing 2% and 8% undecided. Moody leads among men 57% to 31%, while Nixon commands support from women 48% to 43%.
Demographic breakdowns show stark divisions across racial lines in both contests. White voters back Donalds 59% to 30% and Moody 61% to 29%. Black voters strongly support the Democratic challengers, backing Jolly 76% to 10% and Nixon 81% to 10%. Hispanic voters—a critical voting block concentrated heavily in South Florida—narrowly favor the Republican ticket, backing Donalds 48% to 43% and Moody 47% to 40%.
Regional polling reveals strong geographic divides for the gubernatorial candidates.
Ballot Measure Three Draws High Voter Support
When asked about the single biggest factor influencing their vote, 30% of respondents identified inflation and the cost of living. Seventeen percent cited the overall direction of the state or country, 16% pointed to immigration enforcement, and 13% named property taxes.
Recent Polls Show Mixed Results Across Counties
The Mason-Dixon findings follow earlier surveys showing tighter margins earlier in the cycle. A St. Pete Polls survey conducted in mid-September found the Senate race deadlocked at 45% apiece, while the gubernatorial race sat at 44% for Donalds and 43% for Jolly within a 3.2-percentage-point margin of error. In the attorney general contest from that survey, Republican James Uthmeier stood at 43% and Democrat José Javier Rodríguez at 42%. St. Pete Polls President Matt Florell noted that the close numbers arrive as the state’s electorate has experienced a significant shift toward the Republican Party over the previous four years.
Florida State University Political Science Professor Dr. Lana Atkeson observed that party registration totals alone do not dictate actual voter participation or final ballot casting.
In Broward County, a poll conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International showed Jolly leading Donalds 2:1. That strategic communications consulting and public opinion research firm is aligned with Democrats and has done work for the Jolly campaign. That survey also measured local sensitivity to Amendment 3: when informed that the measure could reduce funding for county services, support among local voters dropped.
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