Matsuyama Leads at WM Phoenix Open: Final Round Preview & Odds

by Chief Editor

Two-time WM Phoenix Open champion Hideki Matsuyama holds a narrow lead as he aims for a third title at TPC Scottsdale. A Saturday score of 68 propelled him to the top of the leaderboard entering Sunday’s final round, building on a strong performance Friday where he shot a 64.

Matsuyama began his Saturday strongly, birdieing the first hole and maintaining a share of the lead throughout the day. Whereas his start included three birdies and two bogeys in the first five holes, he settled into a steady rhythm for the remainder of the round.

Did You Know? Matsuyama has never lost a tournament when holding the solo lead going into the final round, converting all five previous opportunities into victories.

A key to Matsuyama’s success this week has been his putting. Historically a weakness, he’s found comfort on the greens at TPC Scottsdale, currently ranking in the top 10 in strokes gained putting. He has been particularly effective inside 10 feet, consistently matching line and speed.

Despite Saturday’s solid performance, Matsuyama’s team felt he could have scored lower. This resulted in a tightly packed leaderboard, with nine players within two shots of the lead. Players are aware that low scores – potentially 65s – are achievable on Sunday, potentially bringing more competitors into contention.

Ideal weather is expected on Sunday, but a late-day wind pattern, similar to previous days, could create challenging conditions. Players teeing off earlier may be able to position pressure on the final groups as the course firms up.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, too a two-time winner at this event, is within striking distance. After a slow start to his third round, he finished strong with a 67, placing him at 8 under – five shots behind Matsuyama. A faster start on Sunday could significantly improve Scheffler’s position.

Leader

1. Hideki Matsuyama (-13): Matsuyama’s history at TPC Scottsdale is strong, though it has been four years since he last contended for the title. He appears to be in control of his game, demonstrating confidence on the greens and a strong ability to avoid bogeys, a factor his competitors will necessitate to overcome.

Contenders

T2. Nicolai Højgaard, Maverick McNealy, Si Woo Kim, Ryo Hisatsune (-12)
T6. Matt Fitzpatrick, Michael Thorbjornsen, Jake Knapp (-11)
10. John Parry (-10)
T11. Viktor Hovland, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Højgaard, Chris Gotterup, Pierceson Coody (-9)
T16. Scottie Scheffler and three others (-8)

The leaderboard features players who have been performing well to start 2026, setting the stage for an exciting final round. Several players posted strong scores on Saturday, including 65s from Hovland, McNealy, Thorbjornsen, and Nicolai Højgaard.

Expert Insight: The tightly bunched leaderboard suggests a highly competitive final round. Matsuyama’s strength has been avoiding mistakes, meaning his challengers will need to post exceptionally low scores to overtake him.

Scheffler, while further back, represents a realistic threat if he can improve his start on Sunday.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Hideki Matsuyama’s current score?

Hideki Matsuyama is currently at 13 under par.

Who are the other top contenders?

Nicolai Højgaard, Maverick McNealy, Si Woo Kim, and Ryo Hisatsune are tied for second place at 12 under par.

What is Scottie Scheffler’s position going into the final round?

Scottie Scheffler is tied for 16th place at 8 under par, five shots behind the leader.

Will Matsuyama be able to maintain his lead and secure his third WM Phoenix Open title?

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