Mexico’s Shifting Sands: The Aftermath of ‘El Mencho’ and the Future of the Drug War
For many, the relative safety of driving from U.S. Cities like El Paso or San Diego to Mexico City is a distant memory. Since 2006, Mexico has been embroiled in a drug war that has rendered large portions of the country unsafe for travel. The recent killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has dramatically underscored this reality, triggering a wave of violence and disruption across the nation.
A Government Walking a Tightrope
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum authorized the operation against El Mencho, reportedly with U.S. Intelligence support, but without direct U.S. Troop involvement. This action represents a shift in Sheinbaum’s longstanding stance against the U.S.-led war on drugs – a policy rooted in the belief that it initiated Mexico’s ongoing insecurity. She is simultaneously attempting to maintain Mexican sovereignty and prevent the kind of intervention repeatedly threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The Trump administration quickly claimed credit for El Mencho’s elimination, but the benefits for ordinary Mexicans remain unclear. The CJNG responded swiftly and violently, with reports of at least 25 National Guard members killed and a total death toll exceeding 70. Attacks occurred across Mexico’s Pacific coast, disrupting daily life and prompting widespread stay-at-home notices.
The Cycle of Violence: A Familiar Pattern
While Mexican forces have regained control of major roadways, the likelihood of continued violence is high. The CJNG is expected to engage in a bloody succession battle, and rival cartels will likely attempt to exploit the power vacuum. Any reduction in the flow of drugs northward is expected to be temporary.
The reaction from pundits and politicians in both Mexico and the United States has largely been to call for further escalation and military action. Still, the core problem isn’t a lack of Mexican firepower; it’s the inherent nature of the drug trade. Eliminating one cartel leader simply creates an opportunity for another to emerge.
The Roots of the Crisis: A Historical Perspective
The current crisis dates back to 2006, when then-President Felipe Calderón, with support from the Bush administration, launched a military crackdown on Mexico’s cartels. While many cartel leaders were killed or captured, civilian deaths soared, and the cartels ultimately grew stronger. This approach inadvertently fostered the emergence of new, dangerous criminal groups, such as Los Zetas, some originating from within the U.S.-trained Mexican military.
Two decades of escalating violence have resulted in hundreds of thousands of displaced Mexicans and an estimated 30,000 crime-related deaths annually. The cycle continues, with each eliminated leader replaced by another, often more ruthless, successor.
Beyond Military Action: Addressing the Core Issues
A fundamental shift in strategy is needed. The United States’ demand for illegal drugs ensures a lucrative market for cartels, while the flow of U.S. Guns south of the border fuels the violence. Passing the ARMAS Act, which would restore State Department control over small arms exports and create an interagency strategy to disrupt the flow of U.S. Guns to Latin America, could be a crucial step.
addressing the root causes of addiction in the United States, particularly regarding opioids, is essential. Recent diplomatic cooperation with China to curb the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals demonstrates that reducing the supply of drugs is possible. Investing in crop substitution programs in Colombia, providing farmers with alternatives to coca cultivation, is another vital component.
Did you know? The United States’ enormous demand for illegal drugs is a primary driver of cartel power and violence in Mexico.
The U.S. Role and the Path Forward
The current approach, characterized by pressure on the Mexican government to take increasingly provocative action, risks turning the country into a battleground and victimizing innocent civilians. A more constructive approach would involve addressing the demand for drugs within the U.S. And stemming the flow of weapons into Mexico.
Pro Tip: Staying informed about travel advisories and security alerts issued by your government is crucial when planning travel to Mexico.
FAQ
Q: Is Mexico safe to travel to right now?
A: Travel safety varies significantly by region. Some areas are considered high-risk due to cartel activity, while others remain relatively safe. It’s essential to check current travel advisories before planning a trip.
Q: What is the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)?
A: The CJNG is one of Mexico’s most powerful drug cartels, with a presence in over 40 countries and affiliates in almost all 50 U.S. States. It is a major source of fentanyl, cocaine, and methamphetamine.
Q: What is the ARMAS Act?
A: The ARMAS Act is proposed legislation that would aim to curb the flow of U.S. Firearms to Latin America by restoring State Department control over small arms exports.
The situation in Mexico is complex and deeply rooted in decades of policy failures. A sustainable solution requires a fundamental shift in strategy, focusing on addressing the underlying drivers of the drug trade and prioritizing the safety and well-being of the Mexican people.
What are your thoughts on the future of security in Mexico? Share your comments below.
