Middle East crude oil exports surged back toward pre-war levels during late September, reaching up to 22.5 million barrels per day despite ongoing tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The recovery was driven by military-escorted tanker shuttles, pipeline diversions, and a coordinated G7 release of strategic reserves.
Global energy markets experienced a notable shift as provisional ship-tracking data showed crude oil exports from the Middle East exceeding pre-war figures on four separate days during the final week of September. Tanker-tracking firm Kpler recorded overall tallies for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaging 22.4 million barrels per day in the seven days leading up to September 30. Kpler’s preliminary data further showed that regional crude exports rose to between 19.5 and 22.5 million bpd, surpassing pre-war levels on September 24 as well as from September 27 to 29. On October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports sat at 18.5 million bpd, encompassing transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, terminal exports, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, while the number of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the strait in September climbed to its highest monthly level since February. Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf producer exports hit 19 million barrels per day, while JPMorgan stated that Middle East crude exports reached about 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels.
The bounce in export volume came even as maritime security agencies reported persistent hazards in key shipping lanes. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency logged at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden starting October 2. Yet, aggressive routing workarounds and heavy naval protection allowed massive volumes to keep moving. Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ali Fadavi stated in a televised interview that only three to four million barrels per day were moving through the route, dismissing the volume as negligible compared to pre-war traffic, and asserted for the first time that no US vessels were present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, or the northern Indian Ocean, claiming US warships are 100 percent vulnerable to IRGC attacks.
Strait of Hormuz Workarounds and Tanker Escorts
Gulf producers leaned heavily on military assistance and tactical workarounds to bypass threats in the critical chokepoint. Oil and petroleum-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.1 million barrels per day, which represents just below 80% of the 17.1 million barrels crossing daily before the conflict began, CNN reported. Data from Kpler indicated that the seven-day average for oil clearing the Strait reached 14.19 million barrels a day, approaching the pre-war baseline of 17.13 million barrels, with most missing volumes attributable to Iranian oil exports blocked by the U.S. blockade overseen by Adm. Brad Cooper and the forces of U.S. Central Command.
To achieve this throughput, operators utilized military-escorted shuttle services, discreet transits with automatic identification system transponders turned off, and offshore ship-to-ship transfers. Martin Kelly, a senior intelligence analyst at security firm EOS Risk Group, informed BBC Verify that US support is primarily in the form of air support to ships
, which includes issuing warnings and intercepting threats. Tanker-tracking reads carry an established caveat that seaborne export figures are estimates subject to revision, and exports do not equal production since barrels can be drawn from storage or rerouted without output changes.
Kpler’s director of commodity research, Matt Smith, pointed to the resilience of these supply lines in an interview with CNN. Given such a strong volume passing through the strait, it is clear Iran is losing its influence over it,
Smith said, as Gulf News detailed.
Pipeline Diversions and Saudi Red Sea Loadings
Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, regional infrastructure adaptations altered global oil logistics.
The onshore conduit had remained offline for a fortnight following September 10 drone strikes on pumping stations. Crude shipments are again being loaded at the Al Muajjiz terminal, situated south of Yanbu, as well as at Yanbu port.
This bypass route faced its own vulnerabilities when Houthi strikes temporarily halted roughly 7 million barrels of oil flowing toward the Red Sea. Despite those interruptions, Saudi Aramco unexpectedly cut November crude oil prices for Asia to six-year lows, Reuters reported. The Houthi movement claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais, while Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government launched a major military campaign to recapture Houthi-controlled areas. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that Iranian oil deliveries to China are estimated to conclude by mid-October as the U.S. squeezes trade partners, prompting actions such as the UAE cutting off trade, Turkey closing Iranian banks, and regional countries suspending flights to Tehran.
G7 Reserve Release Drives Oil Futures Down
The supply rebound coincided with a major policy intervention by industrialized economies.
The intervention drove oil futures down. Brent crude fell 66 cents, or 0.65%, to $101.59 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 95 cents, or 1.03%, to $90.12 a barrel, with Brent giving up most of its previous week’s gains and WTI falling 1.6% over the same period. Market analysts noted that the reserve release successfully quelled immediate market panic.
“The G7 decision to tap strategic reserves is taking some of the immediate supply anxiety out of the price, while there’s a growing view that Saudi export volumes are moving back toward pre-war levels, even if those barrels are still moving at higher cost and via less efficient routes.”
Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade
Waterer added that that combination is enough to subdue prices for now even though the risks of further damage to energy infrastructure around the Gulf region haven’t gone away.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan estimated that global inventories have dropped by about 555 million barrels since the conflict began, leaving physical delivery networks operating under tight margins, with total Middle Eastern crude flows back to 98% of pre-war levels while refined product flows remain at 58%.
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