Europe Braces for a Latest Era of Self-Reliance in Defence
As the Munich Security Conference convenes, a central question looms over Europe: can it truly stand on its own feet when it comes to defence? Growing uncertainty surrounding the United States’ commitment to European security, particularly under President Donald Trump, is fueling anxiety and prompting a serious re-evaluation of the continent’s strategic posture.
The Shifting Sands of Transatlantic Security
The past year has witnessed a series of actions from the Trump administration that have rattled European allies. Punitive tariffs, the raid on Venezuela, a perceived uneven approach to peace in Ukraine favouring Moscow, and even a demand for Canada to become the “51st state” have all contributed to a sense of instability. The latest US National Security Strategy (NSS) explicitly calls on Europe to accept “primary responsibility for its own defence,” a message interpreted by many as a signal of diminishing US willingness to underwrite European security.
Boosting European Defence Capabilities: Ten Key Steps
Recognizing this evolving landscape, policymakers are focusing on concrete steps to bolster Europe’s defence capabilities. The European Policy Centre (EPC) has outlined ten steps for a European defence surge, focusing on mobilizing industrial, financial, and political power. This includes a sustained buildup of resources, acknowledging the narrow window of opportunity to prepare for potential future confrontations.
Investing Smarter: The Age of “Mass Precision”
Simply spending more on defence isn’t enough. A key question is how Europe spends its defence budget. The EPC argues that Europe must rethink its investment strategy in light of the age of “mass precision,” characterized by drone warfare, AI-enabled systems, and evolving threats to critical infrastructure. This requires a shift away from preparing for the “last war” and towards investing in technologies and capabilities relevant to the challenges of today and tomorrow.
Nuclear Deterrence: From Umbrella to Arsenal?
With transatlantic guarantees potentially weakening, the debate around European nuclear deterrence is intensifying. The EPC suggests that conventional rearmament alone may not be sufficient to deter a nuclear-armed Russia. Europe must consider rethinking its nuclear posture and moving towards a more credible, European-based deterrent, rather than relying solely on the US “nuclear umbrella.”
The Critical Role of Military Mobility
A credible defence also hinges on the ability to rapidly deploy forces. Military mobility – the capacity to move troops and equipment quickly and efficiently across borders – is therefore a critical enabler. Upgrading infrastructure, cutting bureaucratic red tape, and funding dual-leverage corridors are essential steps to ensure that European forces can reach the front lines in a timely manner if needed.
Protecting Against Hybrid Threats: The GPS Vulnerability
Beyond traditional military capabilities, Europe faces growing threats in the hybrid domain. Russia’s escalating GPS jamming and spoofing operations pose a significant risk, potentially causing a European air disaster. A coordinated EU-NATO response is needed to deter interference, close legal gaps, and strengthen technical resilience.
Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Future
The challenges facing Europe extend beyond military preparedness. The EPC highlights the need for broader reform of Europe’s political and security architecture to address vulnerabilities in security, democracy, and its economic model. Without bold action, 2026 risks becoming another year of drift rather than renewal for the European project.
FAQ
Q: What is the Munich Security Conference?
A: It’s an annual gathering of top security officials and academics to discuss pressing global security challenges.
Q: Why is the US commitment to European defence being questioned?
A: Actions by the Trump administration, coupled with statements emphasizing European self-reliance, have raised concerns about the future of transatlantic security guarantees.
Q: What does “mass precision” refer to in the context of defence?
A: It describes the increasing importance of technologies like drones, AI, and precision-guided weapons in modern warfare.
Q: What is military mobility and why is it important?
A: It’s the ability to quickly move troops and equipment across borders, crucial for responding to crises effectively.
Q: What are the risks associated with Russian GPS interference?
A: Russia’s jamming and spoofing of GPS signals could disrupt air traffic and potentially cause a major air disaster.
Pro Tip: Staying informed about geopolitical shifts is crucial for understanding the evolving security landscape. Regularly consult reports from organizations like the European Policy Centre.
Did you know? The US National Security Strategy explicitly calls on Europe to take “primary responsibility for its own defence.”
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