March Madness 2026: Bracketology Shifts as Tournament Nears
The race to Selection Sunday is intensifying, with daily results reshaping Joe Lunardi’s latest NCAA tournament projections. As of February 23, 2026, significant changes are occurring at the top and on the bubble, impacting teams’ potential seeding and tournament fates.
Duke Ascends to No. 1 Overall Seed
A recent victory by Duke over Michigan has propelled the Blue Devils to the No. 1 overall seed in Lunardi’s Bracketology. This shift has triggered a ripple effect, altering the positioning of other top contenders. Michigan and Arizona currently hold the No. 2 and No. 3 overall seed positions, respectively, though Lunardi notes the distinction between them is minimal at this stage.
Iowa State’s Fall from the Top
Iowa State experienced a setback with a loss at BYU, ending their brief stint as a No. 1 seed. UConn has reclaimed its position on the top seed line following a win at Villanova. These fluctuations highlight the volatility of the tournament landscape and the importance of consistent performance.
Houston’s Potential for a No. 1 Seed
Houston has the opportunity to re-enter the 1-seed conversation with an upcoming game against Kansas. A win for the Cougars could significantly boost their resume and solidify their position among the nation’s elite teams.
Current Seed Projections
Lunardi’s latest projections reveal the following top seeds:
- 1 Seeds: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
- 2 Seeds: Iowa State, Purdue, Houston, Illinois
- 3 Seeds: Florida, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Kansas
- 4 Seeds: Michigan State, Texas Tech, Virginia, Alabama
Bubble Teams on the Brink
The bubble is becoming increasingly crowded, with several teams vying for at-large bids. Recent losses by Ohio State and USC have dropped them to the wrong side of the cut line, while TCU and Recent Mexico have moved into contention. Ohio State faces a particularly challenging path to a bid, currently holding a concerning 0-9 record in Quad 1 games.
Key Games to Watch
Several upcoming matchups will have significant implications for the bracket:
- Houston at Kansas: This game could determine whether Houston returns to the 1-seed conversation and impact Kansas’ seeding.
- Louisville at North Carolina: A battle between two 6-seeds, with the loser potentially falling out of contention for a protected seed on the 4-line.
- New Orleans at Stephen F. Austin: A crucial game for Stephen F. Austin to secure at least a tie for the Southland Conference title.
State of the Bubble: A Closer Look
The margin for error is shrinking as teams approach Selection Sunday. Every game carries increased weight, and teams on the bubble must prioritize securing quality wins to bolster their tournament resumes.
FAQ: NCAA Tournament Bracketology
Q: What is Bracketology?
A: Bracketology is the practice of predicting the field of 68 teams that will participate in the NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament.
Q: What factors does the selection committee consider?
A: The committee evaluates NET rankings, strength of schedule, quality wins, and other metrics to determine at-large bids.
Q: What does a “Quad 1” game mean?
A: Quad 1 games are considered the most challenging, featuring opponents with high NET rankings, played away from home, or against neutral-site opponents.
Pro Tip
Don’t underestimate the importance of conference tournaments. A team that underperforms during the regular season can significantly improve its tournament chances with a strong showing in its conference tournament.
Stay tuned for further updates as the tournament picture continues to evolve. Follow Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology for the latest projections and analysis.
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