Nebraska’s Shifting Job Landscape: A Disconnect Between Growth and Opportunity
Despite a seemingly robust national economy, Nebraska’s job market is sending mixed signals. While the state boasts record employment numbers, underlying trends suggest a slowdown in hiring, particularly impacting young workers and smaller businesses. This isn’t simply a local anomaly; it reflects a broader divergence between economic indicators like GDP and actual employment figures, a trend economists are watching closely.
The Tariff and Inflation Pinch on Main Street
Creighton University economist Ernie Goss highlights the significant role of inflation and tariffs in this evolving landscape. “Tariffs are hitting smaller businesses and medium-sized businesses more than larger businesses,” he explains. Larger corporations often have the resources to absorb increased import costs or diversify their supply chains, while smaller enterprises struggle to adapt. This disproportionate impact is particularly noticeable in Nebraska’s manufacturing sector.
Data from Goss’s Mid-America Business Conditions Index reveals a concerning decline in Nebraska’s manufacturing exports – a drop of 12.6% in the first nine months of the year, more than double the regional average. This isn’t just about numbers; it translates to fewer opportunities for skilled workers and potential job losses.
A Tale of Two Economies: GDP vs. Employment
The national picture further complicates the narrative. The U.S. economy experienced a strong 4.3% GDP growth in the third quarter, and the stock market remains near record highs. However, the unemployment rate has steadily climbed to 4.6% as of November – the highest in over four years. This disconnect suggests that economic growth isn’t necessarily translating into widespread job creation.
In Nebraska, this divergence is evident in unemployment compensation claims. While the state’s overall employment numbers are up, the average weekly number of workers receiving unemployment benefits increased by 3% in September and October compared to the previous year. Neighboring states like Kansas (10.2%) and Missouri (13.1%) experienced even steeper increases.
Did you know? The unemployment rate for young adults (19-24) in the Kansas City Fed region is significantly higher, ranging from 6% to 9%, indicating a particularly challenging job market for recent graduates.
The Struggle for Young Workers and the Brain Drain
The Kansas City Fed’s September report underscored slowing employment growth across most private industries in Nebraska, with construction, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality being notable exceptions. Crucially, employers anticipate this softening to continue, with more firms expecting headcount reductions than increases by early 2026.
This lack of opportunity is fueling a “brain drain” – the emigration of young, educated Nebraskans to states with more promising career prospects. The Aksarben Foundation’s recent analysis revealed that Nebraska’s two largest cities are lagging behind their peers in job creation, falling short by nearly 70,000 jobs over the past five years. This stagnation hinders overall economic growth and perpetuates the cycle of talent loss.
Layoffs on the Rise: The Tyson Foods Closure as a Case Study
The trend of slowing hiring is coupled with an increase in layoffs. Nebraska saw 14 mass layoff events in 2025, tying 2023 for the highest number since the pandemic. The closure of the Tyson Foods plant in Lexington, impacting over 3,200 workers, is a particularly devastating example. The University of Nebraska-Lincoln estimates this closure will result in a staggering $3.3 billion annual economic loss for the state. Learn more about the Tyson Foods closure impact.
Pro Tip: For job seekers, focusing on industries experiencing growth – like healthcare and construction – and upskilling in high-demand areas can improve employment prospects.
Looking Ahead: Potential Future Trends
Several factors suggest these trends may persist. Continued geopolitical instability could lead to further tariff increases, exacerbating the challenges for small businesses. Automation and technological advancements may displace workers in certain sectors, requiring a focus on retraining and workforce development. Addressing the brain drain will require strategic investments in education, infrastructure, and quality-of-life initiatives to attract and retain talent.
The future of Nebraska’s job market hinges on proactive measures to mitigate these risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities. This includes fostering a more supportive environment for small businesses, investing in workforce training programs, and creating a more attractive environment for young professionals.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the biggest challenge facing Nebraska’s job market?
A: The biggest challenge is the disconnect between overall economic growth and job creation, particularly for young workers and small businesses.
Q: How are tariffs impacting Nebraska businesses?
A: Tariffs are increasing costs for businesses that rely on imports, disproportionately affecting smaller enterprises that lack the resources to absorb these costs.
Q: What is “brain drain” and why is it a concern?
A: “Brain drain” refers to the emigration of educated and skilled workers to other states. It’s a concern because it hinders economic growth and innovation.
Q: What industries are currently experiencing growth in Nebraska?
A: Construction, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality are currently experiencing growth in Nebraska.
What are your thoughts on the current job market? Share your experiences and insights in the comments below! Explore our other articles on Nebraska’s economy and career development for more in-depth analysis and resources. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed about the latest economic trends.
