The Unraveling of Nuclear Arms Control: What Happens Now?
The New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, has expired. This marks a pivotal moment in global security, removing constraints on the world’s two largest nuclear powers – who collectively control 87% of all nuclear weapons. The implications are far-reaching, potentially ushering in a new era of unchecked arms development and increased risk.
A World Without Limits: The Immediate Consequences
Without New START, Russia and the US are no longer bound by limits on the number and types of nuclear weapons they can deploy. This doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate surge in warheads, but it eliminates a crucial layer of transparency and predictability. The treaty included inspections, data exchanges, and notifications of missile launches – all designed to build trust and prevent miscalculation. Its absence fosters an environment of heightened suspicion and could accelerate a new arms race.
“This agreement, while not going far enough in the first place, maintained a vital line of communication,” explains Tuva Krogh Widskjold, coordinator for ICAN Norway, a coalition of organizations working towards nuclear disarmament. “When mistrust is at its highest, the risk of accidents increases dramatically. With nuclear weapons, we simply cannot afford such risks. Dialogue and open channels are essential.”
The Rise of China and a Tripolar Nuclear World
The expiration of New START isn’t happening in a vacuum. China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, moving from an estimated 240 warheads in 2012 to over 600 today, with projections exceeding 1000 by 2030, according to US estimates. The Economist reports this expansion is driven by a desire to deter US intervention in the Taiwan Strait and to challenge the US’s long-held nuclear dominance.
This shift is creating a tripolar nuclear landscape, where the US, Russia, and China all possess significant and growing arsenals. This complexity increases the potential for miscalculation and escalation, particularly in regions with existing geopolitical tensions.
The Debate Over Nordic Nuclear Weapons
The changing security landscape has even sparked debate about the potential need for nuclear weapons in Nordic countries. Johannes Kibsgaard, a lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defence Staff College, has argued that the weakening of US security guarantees necessitates a re-evaluation of this long-held taboo. As reported by Nettavisen, Kibsgaard believes the “curtain has been drawn back” and a new reality requires consideration of all options.
However, this idea is met with strong opposition from disarmament advocates. Widskjold argues that pursuing nuclear weapons in the Nordic region would be counterproductive. “It normalizes nuclear weapons and moves us further away from the goal of delegitimization. Norway should instead join the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, alongside the majority of the world’s nations.”
The Financial Cost of Nuclear Modernization
The lack of arms control isn’t just a strategic concern; it’s also a financial one. Both Russia and the US are investing heavily in modernizing their nuclear arsenals. In 2024, Russia allocated $8.1 billion to nuclear weapons, while the US spent $56.8 billion, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). These funds could be redirected to address pressing global challenges like climate change, healthcare, or education.
Did you know? The combined cost of maintaining and modernizing the US and Russian nuclear arsenals over the next 30 years is estimated to exceed $1.7 trillion.
What’s Next? Hope for Progress in New York
Despite the bleak outlook, there is a glimmer of hope. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) will hold a review conference in New York this April and May. While expectations are low due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, the conference provides a platform for dialogue and a potential opportunity to reaffirm commitments to disarmament negotiations.
“It’s crucial that these states uphold their obligations to negotiate in good faith,” says Widskjold. “We need to prioritize diplomacy and arms control, not escalation and proliferation.”
FAQ: Nuclear Arms Control in 2024
- What was New START? The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, limiting the number of strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems deployed by the US and Russia.
- Why did New START expire? Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023, and it officially expired on February 5, 2024.
- What are the risks of a world without New START? Increased risk of miscalculation, a new arms race, and a less predictable security environment.
- Is nuclear war likely? While the probability remains low, the expiration of New START and the growing geopolitical tensions increase the risk.
- What can be done to reduce the threat? Renewed diplomatic efforts, arms control negotiations, and a commitment to nuclear disarmament.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about nuclear arms control issues by following organizations like ICAN, the Arms Control Association, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Explore further: International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN)
What are your thoughts on the future of nuclear arms control? Share your perspective in the comments below!
