Why Northern France Is Dodging the Deluge – For Now
While much of France grapples with severe flooding, the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region is experiencing a relative calm. What’s behind this fortunate situation, and can it last? Meteorologist Patrick Marlière sheds light on the factors at play.
A Different Atmospheric Setup
Unlike the west and southwest of France, the Hauts-de-France, and particularly Nord-Pas-de-Calais, has benefited from a different weather configuration. Marlière explains that the region hasn’t been exposed to the same “atmospheric rivers” that have dumped massive amounts of precipitation elsewhere. Rainfall has remained near seasonal norms, or even slightly below.
These weather systems, instead of impacting the Nord-Pas-de-Calais, were diverted further north towards the British Isles and Belgium, offering a degree of protection.
Emergency Work and Water Absorption
The reprieve isn’t solely down to luck. Emergency work, including river dredging, drainage improvements, and the installation of pumping stations and temporary retention basins, has played a crucial role. These measures have helped prevent the kind of widespread flooding seen in previous years, particularly in vulnerable areas.
Dry Autumns and Saturated Ground
A key factor is the drier autumn of 2025 compared to 2023. Groundwater levels weren’t saturated at the start of winter, allowing them to absorb January’s rainfall without significant overflow. Marlière notes, “On was on a much less humid autumn 2025 than that of 2023. At the beginning of the winter, the water tables were not yet saturated.”
Pluviometry: A Tale of Two Years
The difference in rainfall is striking. While other regions were inundated, the Pas-de-Calais experienced a near-deficit in precipitation towards the end of 2025. Even with regular rainfall in early 2026, levels remain only slightly above the average for January-February.
For example, in Nielles-lès-Bléquin, a historically flood-prone area, rainfall totaled 70-80 liters per month in autumn and late 2025 – significantly less than the usual 120 liters. In contrast, November 2023 saw a staggering 350 liters, followed by 180 liters in December and 160 liters in February 2024.
Location of Nielles-lès-Bléquin, Pas-de-Calais.
Looking Ahead: Vigilance Remains
Despite the current calm, vigilance is still advised. The Nord department is under yellow alert for river flooding. However, the region is less affected by snowmelt than mountainous areas, where warmer temperatures are expected to cause significant runoff and avalanches.
While some snow in higher elevations could impact the Avesnois area, the overall situation remains less critical than in other parts of France. Marlière cautions that the rainy season isn’t over, and further rainfall is anticipated next week, though not expected to be as severe as previous events.
FAQ
Q: Why is Nord-Pas-de-Calais avoiding the floods?
A: A combination of factors, including less rainfall, a different weather pattern, and preventative measures like river dredging, are contributing to the region’s relative calm.
Q: Is the region completely safe from flooding?
A: No. A yellow alert is in place for the Nord department, and further rainfall is expected. Vigilance is still necessary.
Q: What role did the autumn of 2025 play?
A: The drier autumn meant groundwater levels weren’t saturated, allowing the region to absorb rainfall without widespread flooding.
Q: What is a “boulevard d’humidité”?
A: This refers to a consistent pattern of increased moisture observed over the past 10 years, linked to climate change, that contributes to more frequent and intense rainfall events.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about local weather alerts and heed any warnings issued by authorities. Ensure your property is adequately protected against potential flooding.
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