Novo Nordisk Stock Tumbles Monday to Its Lowest Point in Nearly 5 Years. Here’s Why

Novo Nordisk’s Setback: Is Eli Lilly Set to Dominate the Weight-Loss Drug Market?

The pharmaceutical landscape shifted dramatically on Monday, February 23, 2026, as Novo Nordisk’s stock plummeted over 15% following disappointing results from a clinical trial of its next-generation weight-loss drug, CagriSema. This setback comes as Eli Lilly continues to gain momentum with its rival drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, intensifying the battle for supremacy in the rapidly expanding GLP-1 market.

CagriSema Trial Results: A Closer Look

The trial, involving 809 participants, revealed that patients taking CagriSema experienced an average weight loss of 23% of their body weight after 84 weeks. While a significant result, it fell short of the 25.5% weight loss achieved by patients receiving tirzepatide – the active ingredient in Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound. This difference, though seemingly small, proved pivotal for investors, triggering a substantial sell-off of Novo Nordisk shares.

The Rising Tide of Tirzepatide

Tirzepatide has quickly become a game-changer in the weight-loss arena. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, powered by tirzepatide, has overtaken Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy in U.S. Prescriptions. The drug’s efficacy, demonstrated in trials like SURMOUNT-1 which showed 20-25% weight loss at 72 weeks, is driving rapid adoption. Lilly is further solidifying its position with innovations like a new Zepbound injector pen offering a month’s supply in a single dose.

Novo Nordisk’s Challenges Beyond the Trial

The CagriSema trial isn’t Novo Nordisk’s only hurdle. The Danish drugmaker is also navigating increased competition, declining prices in the U.S., and the impending loss of exclusivity for Wegovy and Ozempic in certain markets. These factors, combined with the CagriSema results, have contributed to a more than 50% decline in Novo Nordisk’s share value over the past year.

The $100 Billion GLP-1 Market: A Battle for Dominance

The competition between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is unfolding within a market projected to exceed $100 billion by 2030. Currently, Novo Nordisk holds a 62% share of the obesity market, while Eli Lilly controls 28%. However, Eli Lilly’s revenue growth is outpacing Novo Nordisk’s, with a 200% increase in 2024 compared to Novo Nordisk’s 35%.

Looking Ahead: Lilly’s Pipeline Advantage

Analysts predict that Eli Lilly could overtake Novo Nordisk in obesity sales by 2027. This projection is based on the superior efficacy of tirzepatide, Lilly’s promising next-generation drugs like retatrutide and orforglipron, and a more aggressive pricing strategy. Eli Lilly’s dual GIP/GLP-1 mechanism delivers 5-7% more weight loss than semaglutide, further fueling its growth.

Manufacturing and Supply Chain Considerations

Both companies are facing challenges in scaling up production to meet the surging demand for GLP-1 drugs. Novo Nordisk currently has a production capacity of 2.4 million doses per month, with plans to increase it to 4.0 million by 2026, but faces auto-injector shortages. Eli Lilly’s current capacity is 1.1 million doses per month, with expansion plans underway.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What is CagriSema? CagriSema is Novo Nordisk’s next-generation experimental weight-loss drug.
• What is tirzepatide? Tirzepatide is the active ingredient in Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound.
• How much weight loss did patients experience with CagriSema? Patients taking CagriSema lost approximately 23% of their body weight after 84 weeks.
• How much weight loss did patients experience with tirzepatide? Patients taking tirzepatide lost approximately 25.5% of their body weight after 84 weeks.

Pro Tip: Keep a close watch on Eli Lilly’s pipeline. Their next-generation drugs could further solidify their lead in the weight-loss market.

What are your thoughts on the future of GLP-1 medications? Share your insights in the comments below!