Global Risk Assessment Warns AI and Nuclear Conflict Threaten Human Extinction by 2100
Humans could face extinction by the year 2100 due to the malicious use of artificial intelligence or nuclear conflict, according to a new global risk assessment published by The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health. These dangers top a list of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, which also encompasses cuts to aid spending by wealthy countries, the climate crisis, and childhood malnutrition. The commission’s findings are scheduled to be shared at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany.
The evaluation models how many years in good health might be lost due to sickness, disability, or early deaths based on current trajectories, a metric known as disability-adjusted life years (Dalys). While the likelihood of extinction via these pathways remains low, the report highlights their potential to end humanity. Prof Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, emphasized that decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation.
Pathways to Catastrophe Through Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Conflict
The commission report specifically identifies the malicious use of AI—including bioweapons—and nuclear conflict involving nuclear famine as carriers of extinction risk in the next 75 years. In a nuclear conflict, enough particles could be injected into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and cause widespread famine. Alternatively, AI systems could be used to engineer biological weapons. An accompanying Lancet editorial warned that the scale of harm, should these scenarios be realized, would inflict an apocalypse on humanity.
Despite these severe warnings, the commission stresses that a realistic route to action exists for every identified hazard. Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at UCL, explained that the assessment aims to provide policymakers at global multilateral and national levels with a clear view of the potential threats they face and the magnitude of difference proactive intervention can make.
Major Catastrophic Threats Exceeding One Billion Lost Healthy Years
Beyond extinction-level events, the commission flagged several other risks capable of causing more than one billion cumulative Dalys, classifying them as major catastrophic threats. Included in this category are childhood malnutrition, air pollution, income inequality, antimicrobial resistance, climate breakdown, high blood pressure, conventional conflict, smoking, declining overseas aid, obesity, high alcohol use, poor mental health, naturally occurring pandemics, low educational attainment, and unhealthy ageing. To earn a spot on the list, threats had to demonstrate both a high potential burden of lost healthy years and actionable solutions.
Geographic disparities heavily influence how these risks manifest. In higher-income regions, non-communicable diseases like obesity and poor mental health emerge as dominant threats, whereas health loss in lower-income regions is driven largely by factors such as low educational attainment. At the same time, the UK and US, among other primary donor nations, have announced significant reductions in aid spending during the previous year. The potential collapse of international health aid could trigger up to 1.5 billion Dalys before 2100, with nearly 70% of those losses concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, a region already bearing the brunt of child malnutrition.
Interventions and Scenarios for Mitigation Before 2100
To evaluate potential outcomes, the commission modelled best- and worst-case scenarios for each threat. Action to limit global heating to about 1.8C (3.2F) rather than allowing temperatures to reach 4.4C could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost. The 35-expert commission plans to update its assessment annually to re-evaluate the 17 threats, incorporating new data and emerging hazards as they develop.
Reflecting on the three-year process behind the report, Prof Christopher Murray noted that the initial focus on conflict, climate, and pandemics expanded significantly into a much larger roster of challenges. Governments must dedicate financial resources and personnel to anticipation, prevention, and preparation to address this diverse set of risks before they escalate into crises.
Frequently Asked Questions About the 21st Century Health Threats
How many total threats were identified by the commission?
The Lancet Commission identified 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, categorized by their potential to cause massive losses in healthy life years and their availability of solutions.
Where will the findings be officially presented?
The findings of the 35-expert commission are scheduled to be shared at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany.
How many years of healthy life could be saved by limiting global heating to 1.8C?
According to the report’s modeling, limiting global heating to about 1.8C rather than 4.4C could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost.
Which geographic region would absorb the majority of health losses from foreign aid cuts?
The commission found that nearly 70% of the up to 1.5 billion Dalys caused by potential reductions in international health aid would occur in sub-Saharan Africa.
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