A dangerous escalation is brewing along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, threatening to destabilize the region and potentially ignite a wider conflict. For nearly two decades, Pakistan has faced attacks from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group aiming to overthrow the Pakistani government.
Rising Tensions and Cross-Border Strikes
Islamabad accuses the Taliban regime in Afghanistan of harboring TTP militants and facilitating attacks on Pakistani soil. Since the Taliban regained power in 2021, terrorist violence in Pakistan has surged, particularly targeting security forces near the border. 2025 marked Pakistan’s deadliest year in a decade, with 699 terrorist attacks resulting in 1,034 deaths – a 34 and 21 percent increase respectively from the previous year.
In October, Pakistan responded to these attacks with airstrikes in Afghanistan, including a strike on a convoy in Kabul and targets in Paktika Province. This prompted retaliatory attacks from the Taliban on Pakistani border posts, leading to further Pakistani strikes. While mediation efforts by Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have yielded temporary ceasefires, a lasting resolution remains elusive. Recent skirmishes in late November resulted in the deaths of five Afghan civilians and injuries on both sides of the border.
A War of Words and Shifting Alliances
The situation is further complicated by increasingly hostile rhetoric from both sides. Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, accused Pakistan of collaborating with the United States to destabilize Afghanistan. Pakistan’s army spokesperson, Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, countered by asserting that groups like ISIS, al-Qaeda, and the TTP all originate with the “Afghan Taliban.” This is despite Pakistan’s own past support for the Taliban, dating back to the 1990s.
Adding to Pakistan’s concerns is the growing relationship between the Taliban and India. After decades of hostility, the Taliban’s Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, visited India in October, holding high-level meetings and proclaiming a “bright” future for India-Afghanistan relations. India has since reopened its embassy in Kabul and is exploring new commercial partnerships.
Potential Escalation and Regional Implications
Pakistan’s military leadership has warned the Taliban to choose between ties with Pakistan or the TTP, implying further punitive actions if the latter is chosen. While Pakistan has options – including intensified military operations and economic pressure – previous attempts have proven ineffective. A potential offensive in the Tirah Valley, a TTP stronghold, is being considered, though officials deny imminent action.
Any escalation carries significant risks. Sustained Pakistani strikes within Afghanistan could provoke widespread Taliban-sponsored attacks. A car bomb in Islamabad in November, which killed 12 people, serves as a stark reminder of the TTP’s capabilities. Escalation could also destabilize Afghanistan, embolden ISIS-K, and potentially trigger a conflict with India, who has warned of retaliation for future terrorist attacks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary source of conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan?
The primary source of conflict is Pakistan’s accusation that the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is harboring and supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group responsible for attacks within Pakistan.
What has been the trend in terrorist attacks in Pakistan?
Terrorist attacks in Pakistan have been increasing. In 2025, there were 699 attacks, a 34 percent increase from 2024, resulting in 1,034 deaths, a 21 percent increase from the previous year.
What role is India playing in this conflict?
India is strengthening ties with the Taliban, reopening its embassy in Kabul and exploring commercial partnerships. This is concerning to Pakistan, which views India as a regional rival and has accused both the Taliban and India of sponsoring militant groups within its territory.
Given these escalating tensions, what steps might be taken to prevent further conflict and instability in the region?
