Recent airstrikes by Pakistan in Afghanistan and subsequent clashes between troops from both countries signal a dramatic escalation of tensions, revealing a significant miscalculation in Islamabad’s reliance on the Taliban. The situation stems from Pakistan’s repeated calls for the Taliban to prevent Pakistani militants from operating within Afghanistan’s borders.
A History of Miscalculation
The current crisis echoes a pattern of strategic missteps. In 2021, following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, then-Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, visited Kabul and told reporters, “Don’t worry, everything will be OK.” This statement now appears strikingly inaccurate, as Pakistan faces a resurgence of attacks from groups operating from Afghan soil.
The predicament Pakistan now faces is a reversal of accusations leveled against it prior to 2021, when the US-led coalition in Afghanistan accused Pakistan of providing safe haven to the Taliban.
The Rise of the TTP
Central to the current conflict is the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which emerged in 2007. While weakened in the years leading up to the Taliban’s control of Kabul, the TTP has experienced a resurgence since 2021, launching increased attacks within Pakistan. The Taliban and the TTP previously fought together against international forces in Afghanistan, and the TTP had previously hosted fighters in Pakistan.
The TTP, currently led by Noor Wali Mehsud, seeks to impose its own extreme interpretation of Islam on Pakistan, despite the fact that 95% of the population already identifies as Muslim within a constitutional framework that aligns with Islamic law.
Pakistan’s Strategy and Potential Outcomes
Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, stated that patience has run out. According to Antonio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, Pakistan’s current strategy involves inflicting pain on Afghanistan through airstrikes and an economic blockade, hoping to compel a change in the Taliban’s approach or a leadership change.
Still, Giustozzi cautions that bombing Afghanistan may have been a mistake, potentially strengthening the Taliban’s leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, through a wave of nationalism. The Taliban are now reportedly supporting a secular insurgency seeking separation of Pakistan’s Balochistan province.
Asif Durrani, formerly Pakistan’s special envoy for Afghanistan, stated the Taliban were presented with a choice between Pakistan and the TTP, and ultimately chose the latter.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the TTP seeking to achieve?
The TTP seeks to impose its own extreme version of Islam on Pakistan, despite the fact that 95% of the population is already Muslim and the constitution stipulates that all laws have to be in line with Islam.
What was the initial response from Pakistan after the Taliban took power in 2021?
Days after the Taliban swept to power in 2021, Pakistan’s then spymaster, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, appeared in Kabul and told reporters, “Don’t worry, everything will be OK.”
What is Pakistan’s current strategy towards Afghanistan?
Pakistan’s strategy, according to Antonio Giustozzi, is to inflict pain on Afghanistan through airstrikes and an economic blockade, to compel a change in approach or replacement of the leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada.
Given the complex dynamics at play, will Pakistan be able to compel the Taliban to address its concerns regarding the TTP, or will the current escalation lead to further instability in the region?
