Net overseas migration targets have sparked a sharp political divide in Australia, with One Nation proposing to cut temporary migrant numbers by more than 750,000 over three years while the federal government maintains a long-term target of 225,000. Home affairs minister Tony Burke warned that the populist party’s plan would trash Australian services and the economy, but One Nation leader Pauline Hanson argued that population growth has driven years of per-capita recessions and declining living standards, according to theguardian.com.
One Nation Migration Cuts Versus Labor Targets
One Nation’s proposal targets international students and family members of skilled migrants to achieve a three-year reduction that would turn net overseas migration negative before capping it at 130,000 annually. That policy stands in stark contrast to Labor’s long-term net overseas migration target of 225,000. Official estimates for the year leading up to March placed net overseas migration at 292,000. Hanson asserted on social media that Canada’s experience demonstrates how living standards improve when migration is restricted, pointing to a per-capita recession in Australia that she claims is fueled by high population growth.
Canada Economic Adjustment Under Lower Migration
Canada has implemented strict policies to reduce temporary migrants from a population share of 7.6% in 2024 down to 5%. Those measures have slowed annual population growth from 3.1% in early 2024 to 0.5%, according to economic reports. A May report from the CD Howe Institute, authored by Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi, modeled that real GDP growth in 2026 may not exceed 0.5% and that employment could fall. However, the report’s authors noted that these figures reflect a normally operating labor market adjusting to demographic shifts rather than a broken economy. Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, stated that the Canadian economy has remained relatively resilient despite tighter rules.
Diverging Economic Realities Between Australia and Canada
Economists caution against assuming Australia would mirror Canada’s economic trajectory if it enacted similar migration curbs. Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at Challenger, noted that Canada’s post-pandemic immigration surge was far larger than Australia’s, leaving Canada’s population sitting 5% above pre-pandemic trends compared to just 0.2% above trend in Australia. Canada initiated its crackdown during high unemployment following aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, whereas Australia maintains a tight labor market with unemployment at 4.6% and widespread worker shortages. Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis observed that Canada’s resilience is partly attributable to recovering from a recession, adding that Australia’s high reliance on temporary overseas labor has degraded the domestic workforce’s training capacity.
Did you know? Canada’s population growth slowed dramatically from 3.1% in early 2024 to 0.5% after policymakers restricted international student inflows and made it harder to extend temporary stays.
Aging Populations Threaten Economic Growth and Fiscal Stability
Both Australia and Canada face aging populations that require taxpaying workers to fund pensions, aged care, and health services. CD Howe Institute modeling showed that if Canada’s current low population growth became permanent, the economy would be about 11.5% smaller by 2060 compared to official government projections, leading to structurally weaker revenues and higher debt ratios. Janzen noted that without immigration, structural labor shortages will persist in Canada, pointing toward a eventual return to historical immigration rates once the temporary adjustment concludes.
Frequently Asked Questions About Migration Cuts
How large are the proposed migration reductions by One Nation?
One Nation announced a plan to cut the number of temporary migrants in Australia by more than 750,000 over a three-year period by targeting international students and family members of skilled migrants. This reduction would drive net overseas migration into negative territory for three years before establishing an ongoing cap of 130,000.
What is Australia’s current official net overseas migration level?
The last official estimate placed net overseas migration at 292,000 in the year to March, which sits above Labor’s long-term target of 225,000.
How much has Canada’s population growth slowed down?
Canada’s annual population growth dropped from 3.1% in early 2024 to 0.5% following a series of policy adjustments designed to lower the share of temporary residents from 7.6% to 5%.
What is Australia’s current unemployment rate?
Australia’s unemployment rate sits at 4.6% amid a tight labor market characterized by widespread worker shortages.
“By choosing higher population growth with a high temporary component, we have made it easy for employers to look offshore any time they need to find someone for a job,” Ellis said.
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