The start of 2026 finds Gaza grappling with continued conflict and the complexities of a newly initiated stabilization plan. While a ceasefire established in October offers a potential turning point, significant risks remain, particularly as the plan enters its second phase.

The Trump Plan’s Second Phase: A Critical Step

President Donald Trump’s 20-point Comprehensive Plan is now in its second phase, aiming to consolidate the ceasefire and establish latest transitional bodies. These include the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza and the Office of the High Representative for Gaza. This phase is considered a “critical step” toward a more stable future for the enclave.

Challenges to Implementation

Despite the potential for progress, the task ahead is “monumental.” Success hinges on close coordination among all stakeholders and a careful consideration of existing systems and capacities. The plan’s success is contingent on Hamas disarming, a requirement that appears to be a major sticking point. Israel, in turn, is delaying further withdrawals from Gaza until all provisions of the plan are fully implemented, including the disarmament of Hamas.

Aid Restrictions and Humanitarian Concerns

Growing uproar surrounds Israel’s aid restrictions, which have been tightened with new regulations requiring detailed information on Palestinian staff of humanitarian agencies. Israel has ordered the banning of 37 humanitarian agencies for failing to comply with these regulations, effective March 1st. This, coupled with ongoing Israeli attacks – including the killing of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank – casts a shadow over the prospects for stability.

Escalating Tensions Beyond Gaza

The situation in the occupied West Bank continues to deteriorate, with reports of arrests, home demolitions, and alleged abuse during Israeli operations. Simultaneously, tensions are rising in Southern Lebanon, with Israeli forces engaging in deadly strikes. These escalating conflicts outside of Gaza threaten to undermine any progress made within the enclave.

Regional Dynamics and Potential for Wider Conflict

The Middle East remains a volatile region, with unresolved conflicts and power struggles among allies. While global officials hope for a peaceful 2026, experts anticipate that this hope may be thwarted. The potential for additional military action by Israel and the U.S. Against Iran looms, though Iran could unexpectedly emerge as a stabilizing force if protests lead to a regime change.

The Houthi Threat and Red Sea Security

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen are likely to resume attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea if fighting in Gaza escalates, further complicating regional stability.

Diplomatic Efforts and International Involvement

Cautious diplomatic progress is being made, as evidenced by the UN’s engagement with the National Committee in Cairo to discuss restoring essential public services, facilitating humanitarian aid, and planning for reconstruction. The UN is also working to support efforts in line with Security Council resolution 2803.

Palestinian Diplomacy

The opening of the Palestinian embassy in London, following the United Kingdom’s diplomatic recognition of Palestine in September 2025, represents a small but significant step in Palestinian diplomatic efforts.

Looking Ahead: A Moment of Opportunity and Risk

The current moment is described as one of “profound opportunity and considerable risk.” The second phase of the Trump plan presents a genuine chance for a better future for Gaza, but many uncertainties remain. The success of this phase will depend on navigating a complex web of political, security, and humanitarian challenges.