Poland’s Trade Deficit Widens: What It Means for 2026
Poland experienced a trade deficit of 6.2 billion euros in 2025, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS). This marks a shift from previous years, with imports outpacing exports. Understanding the factors driving this change and its potential implications is crucial for businesses and investors alike.
The Numbers Behind the Deficit
Total Polish exports reached approximately 368.7 billion euros in 2025, a 2% increase. Simultaneously, imports rose to around 374.9 billion euros, representing a 3.9% growth. This divergence created the 6.2 billion euro deficit, equivalent to 26.2 billion zlotys.
EU Remains a Dominant Trade Partner
Despite the overall deficit, trade with developed countries continues to be paramount for Poland. In 2025, 87.1% of Polish exports went to developed nations, with the European Union as the primary destination, accounting for 74.8% of those exports. Similarly, 64.4% of imports originated from developed countries, with 52.6% coming from within the EU.
These figures represent a slight shift from 2024, where developed countries accounted for 86.5% of exports (74.2% to the EU) and 64.9% of imports (53% from the EU). This indicates a continued, strong reliance on trade within the EU and with other developed economies.
Key Trading Partners: Germany Leads the Way
Germany remains Poland’s most significant export market, capturing 26.9% of all Polish exports. The Czech Republic and France follow, with 6.2% and 6.1% respectively. On the import side, Germany is also the leading supplier, providing 19% of Poland’s total imports. China and the United States are also key import partners, contributing 15.5% and 4.8% respectively.
Implications and Future Trends
The widening trade deficit suggests a potential increase in domestic demand within Poland, driving up import needs. This could be a positive sign of economic growth, but also requires careful monitoring to ensure it doesn’t lead to unsustainable imbalances.
Investment and Production Activity
Recent data indicates that Poland’s economic growth is not solely reliant on consumption, but also benefits from increasing investment and production activity. This is a healthy sign for medium-term growth, suggesting a more robust and diversified economy.
Sectoral Performance
While overall economic growth was 3.2% in Q1 2025, certain sectors are driving this momentum. Further analysis of these sectors is needed to identify opportunities for investment and growth.
FAQ
Q: What caused the trade deficit in 2025?
A: Imports grew at a faster rate (3.9%) than exports (2%), resulting in a 6.2 billion euro trade deficit.
Q: Which country is Poland’s biggest trading partner?
A: Germany is Poland’s largest trading partner for both exports and imports.
Q: What percentage of Poland’s trade is with developed countries?
A: Approximately 87.1% of Poland’s exports and 64.4% of its imports are with developed countries.
Q: Is Poland’s economy growing?
A: Yes, Poland’s GDP increased by 3.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025.
Did you know? Poland’s economic growth in 2025 was three times higher than the EU average.
Pro Tip: Businesses looking to expand into Poland should focus on sectors driving economic growth and consider the strong trade ties with the EU.
Stay informed about Poland’s evolving economic landscape. Visit Statistics Poland (GUS) for the latest data and analysis.
