Polls have opened in the closely contested by-election for Gorton and Denton in south-east Manchester, a race described as one of the most unpredictable in recent years.
A Three-Way Battle
The Green party, led by Zack Polanski, reports being “neck and neck” with Reform UK in an attempt to overturn Labour’s existing 13,000-vote majority. Polanski stated that Labour will need to “search their conscience” should Reform UK secure a victory. Labour, under Keir Starmer, has focused its efforts on appealing to left-leaning voters, arguing that only their party can prevent a win for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. They characterize a vote for the Greens as “in effect, a vote for Reform.”
Labour’s tactic of dismissing the Greens’ chances mirrors a previous unsuccessful strategy employed in the Caerphilly byelection in October, where they lost to Plaid Cymru despite repeatedly asserting “Only Labour can beat Reform.”
Concerns of a Split Vote
Polanski accuses Labour of deliberately attempting to divide the left-wing vote, suggesting a Green victory would be “existential” for Starmer. He believes Labour is “way, way behind” and that his party is fractionally ahead of Reform. Polanski expressed concern that Reform could win by a narrow margin if Labour siphons off enough votes from the Green party.
A similar vote split on the left previously allowed Reform to win the Runcorn and Helsby byelection last May by just six votes.
Candidates and Potential Outcomes
Labour is defending a 13,413-vote majority in Gorton and Denton, a constituency where nearly 80% of voters backed a left-leaning party in the 2024 election. Angeliki Stogia is Labour’s candidate, selected after Andy Burnham was prevented from standing. Standing for Reform UK is Matt Goodwin, an academic and GB News presenter who has faced criticism for past comments. Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and plumber, represents the Green party.
According to Professor Will Jennings of the University of Southampton, the outcome is too close to call. A Labour defeat could be “terminal” for Starmer’s current political strategy, while a victory would “staunch that sense of inevitability of the complete of Starmer.” However, even a win may be short-lived, as Labour is anticipated to face significant losses in upcoming local and devolved elections.
Recent Campaign Developments
On Monday, Starmer criticized the Green party’s drug legalization plans as “disgusting,” claiming they would lead to increased drug use in public spaces. Polanski responded by accusing Starmer of “spoiler behaviour” and suggested Labour’s claims of confidence were unfounded. He as well criticized a Labour attack advert on social media that he described as a “new low.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What triggered the by-election?
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne on health grounds in January. He was also under investigation by parliament for offensive messages he sent in a WhatsApp group.
What is the current state of the race?
Zack Polanski of the Green party says his party is “neck and neck” with Reform UK, while Labour is “way, way behind.”
What could a Labour defeat imply for Keir Starmer?
Professor Will Jennings said a Labour defeat would be “terminal” for Starmer’s strategy to appeal to right-leaning voters.
As voters head to the polls, what factors will ultimately determine the outcome of this pivotal by-election?
