The NFC Championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night is being touted as one of the most compelling NFL matchups in nearly five decades.
A Matchup for the Ages
According to Aaron Schatz, chief analytics officer of FTN Fantasy, “By DVOA, the NFC Championship Game is essentially the best NFL matchup of the last 47 years, and by a lot.” DVOA, or “Defense-adjusted Value Over Average,” measures a team’s efficiency by comparing its success on each play to a league average, factoring in situation and opponent.
The combined DVOA of the Rams and Seahawks is the highest of any two playoff teams in the last 47 years. Beyond the analytics, the game features a compelling narrative: a rivalry renewed, a clash of coaching styles, and a pivotal moment for both quarterbacks.
A Battle of Styles
The Seahawks and Rams have already faced each other twice this season, with a combined margin of victory of just three points. The game pits Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay’s offensive prowess against Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald’s defensive strategies. The Rams lead the league in yards per game, passing yards per game, and points per game, averaging 30.5 points.
Seattle, conversely, has built its success on defense, allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game and the fewest points per game (17.2). The Rams’ offensive strategy relies heavily on formations with three tight ends, creating mismatches for opposing defenses, as explained by Rams tight end Terrance Ferguson: “It makes it easier on us. It’s the mismatches 13 personnel creates.”
Seattle has countered this strategy by frequently deploying at least five defensive backs, relying on the versatility of rookie nickel cornerback Nick Emmanwori, who can both cover receivers and tackle effectively. Macdonald noted in December that Emmanwori’s unique skillset requires the coaching staff to “make it up as we go to a certain extent.”
Quarterback Crossroads
The game also represents a significant opportunity for both Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold. Stafford could potentially reach another Super Bowl and further solidify his Hall of Fame credentials, while Darnold aims to prove himself on a large stage against a historically challenging defense. The teams’ previous matchups were decided by narrow margins – the Rams won a defensive battle 21-19 in November, while the Seahawks secured a 38-37 overtime victory in December.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is DVOA?
DVOA stands for “Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.” It’s a metric that measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average, based on situation and opponent.
How close were the regular season games between the Seahawks and Rams?
The two regular season games between the Seahawks and Rams were incredibly close, with a combined margin of victory of just three points.
What is “13-personnel”?
“13-personnel” refers to offensive formations using three tight ends. The Rams used these formations 30.5% of the time during the regular season, significantly more than the league average.
Which team will advance to the Super Bowl remains to be seen, but Sunday’s NFC Championship game promises a compelling contest between two well-coached teams with contrasting styles and high stakes.
