The Unraveling Alliance: How a US-China Rapprochement Could Leave Russia Isolated
The seemingly unbreakable partnership between Russia and China is facing a critical juncture. Even as both nations publicly project a united front, a growing divergence in their strategic goals, coupled with a potential thaw in US-China relations, threatens to reshape the geopolitical landscape. According to analysis by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, founder of the Center for Novel Eurasian Strategies, the reality of this alliance is far from idyllic.
A Marriage of Convenience Under Strain
The core issue lies in fundamentally opposing ambitions. Russia, under Vladimir Putin, seeks to dismantle the existing international order established after the Cold War, aiming to rebuild it in a way that favors the Kremlin. China, conversely, pursues a gradual, rules-based approach to establishing a China-centric global system, prioritizing stability and predictability. This inherent conflict limits the depth of their cooperation.
Putin’s urgency stems from a limited window of opportunity to exploit divisions within the “Collective West.” Still, his vulnerabilities are increasingly apparent – evidenced by perceived failures in Venezuela, a reluctance to fully support Iran, and the weakening of the Assad regime in Syria. These setbacks paint a picture of a strained and weakening Russia, losing credibility with allies in the Global South.
The Shifting Sands of US-China Relations
A significant factor complicating matters for Russia is the evolving dynamic between the United States and China. Despite occasional tensions, the administration of Donald Trump has demonstrated a willingness to engage with Beijing on pragmatic terms, focusing on economic cooperation and a “machtpolitik” approach. The meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Seoul signaled a clear intention to separate the “Russian question” from the “Chinese question.”
This shift is deeply concerning for Moscow. A closer US-China relationship would relegate Russia to a secondary player on the world stage, diminishing its influence, particularly in Ukraine. Russia’s increasing dependence on China for machinery, equipment, and transit routes to sustain its war effort underscores its vulnerability. Without Chinese support, Russia’s military capabilities could be severely hampered.
China’s Calculations: Self-Interest Above All
While China has refrained from overtly condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, its motivations are primarily self-serving. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly conveyed to the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, that China does not want Russia to be defeated, fearing it would redirect US attention towards Beijing. However, maintaining the partnership is predicated on both sides benefiting from opposing the US – a premise now in question.
The US initially attempted to decouple Moscow from Beijing, but this strategy has shifted. Trump’s positive assessment of his meeting with Xi and his invitation to visit China suggest a willingness to prioritize a pragmatic relationship with Beijing. This approach aligns with Xi’s preference for a stable, predictable international environment.
What Does This Mean for Europe?
As the US and China explore avenues for cooperation, Europe finds itself in a precarious position. The potential for a long-term agreement between China and the West presents an opportunity for Europe to leverage its relationship with Beijing to encourage China to distance itself from Russia’s aggressive policies. A stable Europe is not in China’s interest to destabilize.
FAQ
Q: Is the Russia-China partnership truly “unlimited”?
A: While publicly presented as such, the partnership is limited by fundamentally different strategic goals and China’s own self-interests.
Q: What is “machtpolitik”?
A: It refers to a foreign policy based on practical considerations of power, rather than ideology or ethics.
Q: Could the US and China actually reach a comprehensive agreement?
A: While challenges remain, the willingness of both leaders to engage in pragmatic dialogue suggests it is a possibility.
Q: What is the biggest risk for Russia in this shifting landscape?
A: Becoming increasingly isolated and reliant on China, losing its status as a major global power.
Did you know? Russia’s reliance on China for war materials is unprecedented, highlighting its diminished capacity for independent action.
Pro Tip: Keep a close watch on US-China trade negotiations and diplomatic exchanges – these will be key indicators of the evolving geopolitical landscape.
What are your thoughts on the future of the Russia-China alliance? Share your insights in the comments below!
