From Ice Picks to Novichok: How Russia’s “Wet Work” Is Evolving
Decades of Soviet‑era “direct action” have forged a playbook that modern Russian agencies still follow. While the tools have changed—from an ice pick in Mexico City to the nerve agent Novichok—the strategic purpose remains the same: a public, unmistakable reminder that the Russian state controls the fate of dissenters, defectors, and foreign adversaries.
Legacy of the “Poison Factory”
During the Cold War, the KGB’s notorious Laboratory 1 (codenamed “kamera”) refined toxins like ricin and polonium. Today, the FSB’s successor lab continues to produce state‑only chemical agents. Open‑source investigations by Bellingcat have linked the same lab to the 2018 Skripal poisoning and the attempted killing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Why Signature Poisons Remain the Weapon of Choice
Using a unique, hard‑to‑mask toxin serves two purposes:
- Denial‑by‑design: A rare compound like Novichok can only be produced in a handful of state labs, instantly pointing the finger at Russian intelligence.
- Psychological impact: The visible “signature” reinforces the message that the Kremlin will not hesitate to employ its deadliest tools.
Data from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons shows a 30 % increase in documented use of nerve agents in the past five years, a trend driven largely by Russian‑linked operations.
Future Trends: What to Expect in the Next Decade
1. Hybrid “Wet Work” + Cyber‑Enabled Sabotage
Russia’s cyber‑wet‑work hybrid model will combine traditional poison attacks with digital intrusions. Imagine a poisoned package that also plants a ransomware payload, creating a two‑front crisis for the victim.
2. Expansion of “Deniable” Delivery Mechanisms
New delivery methods—such as aerosolized agents in public transport or covertly spiked food supplies—are being tested in simulation labs. The goal is to create plausible deniability while still delivering a lethal or incapacitating dose.
3. Targeting “Digital Dissidents”
As more opposition figures operate online, Russian services are likely to develop neuro‑toxins that affect cognitive function, aimed at silencing bloggers and whistleblowers without immediate death, thereby avoiding high‑profile investigations.
Case Study: The Rheinmetall Plot (2024)
German authorities foiled a GRU‑linked plan to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO Markus Steffens using an explosive‑laced parcel. The operation combined classic “wet work” logistics with modern supply‑chain infiltration, illustrating the hybrid threat in practice.
How the West Can Counter the Evolving Threat
Pro‑Active Intelligence Sharing
Timely exchange of forensic data on rare toxins is essential. Nations should expand joint laboratories for rapid analysis of suspected nerve agents, similar to the CWC‑supported network.
Legal and Diplomatic Pressure
Sanctions targeting “chemical weapons developers” within Russia—especially those tied to the FSB’s modern “kamera”—can raise the cost of state‑sponsored assassinations. The U.S. and EU have already placed export bans on precursor chemicals, a policy that should be broadened.
Public Awareness Campaigns
“Did you know?” alerts that educate citizens on the signs of a poisoned package can reduce the success rate of covert deliveries. Simple measures—like not touching suspicious objects and reporting them to authorities—have saved lives in multiple European cases.
FAQ – Quick Answers on Russian “Wet Work”
- What is “wet work”?
- A covert term used by Russian security services for assassinations, poisonings, and other clandestine lethal operations.
- Is Novichok still in use?
- Yes. Recent OPCW reports confirm that variants of the nerve agent appear in multiple high‑profile cases since 2018.
- How can governments identify a Russian‑linked poison?
- Through forensic analysis of chemical signatures, supply‑chain tracing of precursor chemicals, and intelligence linking the case to known FSB labs.
- Will cyber tools replace traditional poison?
- Not entirely. Cyber tools are complementary, often used to enhance delivery, conceal tracks, or create hybrid attacks.
- Are Russian assassinations always state‑approved?
- Most are either directly ordered by the Kremlin or carried out with tacit approval to maintain the regime’s deterrence posture.
Stay Informed – Your Next Steps
Understanding the evolving landscape of Russian “wet work” is essential for policymakers, security professionals, and the general public. Share your thoughts below, explore our intelligence analysis hub, and subscribe to our weekly security brief for the latest updates.
