The Rise of Agentic Systems Intelligence: How AI is Reshaping Geopolitical Strategy
Anthony J. Tokarz, a Seton Hall University School of Diplomacy and International Relations alumnus, is at the forefront of a rapidly evolving field: the application of artificial intelligence to geopolitical risk assessment. As a special projects associate at Anadyr Horizon, Tokarz is helping pioneer Agentic Systems Intelligence (ASI), a technology poised to dramatically alter how governments and financial institutions navigate global crises.
Understanding Agentic Systems Intelligence (ASI)
ASI moves beyond traditional predictive modeling by creating simulations populated by autonomous “agents” that react to events and each other, mirroring real-world geopolitical dynamics. This allows for the exploration of complex scenarios and potential outcomes that static models often miss. Anadyr Horizon’s function blends geopolitics, national security, defense and emerging technologies, offering a holistic approach to risk intelligence.
The Intersection of Geopolitics and Emerging Technology
Tokarz’s role exemplifies a growing trend: the need for professionals who can bridge the gap between geopolitical analysis and technological innovation. He balances go-to-market strategy with deep dives into geopolitical complexities, tracking developments in defense technology, Department of War policy, and strategic regions like the Arctic and Indo-Pacific. This requires a unique skillset – analytical rigor combined with an understanding of how technology can be leveraged for strategic advantage.
Focus on Key Regions: The Arctic and Indo-Pacific
The Arctic and Indo-Pacific regions are experiencing increased geopolitical competition, making them prime areas for ASI application. The Arctic is facing new challenges due to climate change and increased accessibility, while the Indo-Pacific is a focal point for strategic rivalry between major powers. Predictive simulations can assist stakeholders understand potential flashpoints and develop proactive strategies.
The Importance of Regional Expertise and Economic Understanding
Tokarz emphasizes the importance of combining strategic geopolitical understanding with deep regional expertise. He specifically recommends focusing on a particular region – such as Central-Eastern Europe and Russia – and developing analytical methods like Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and supply chain analysis. He also stresses the critical role of economics, stating that “economics is the language of politics.”
Building a Career at the Nexus of Strategy and Technology
Tokarz’s career path, from internships at international institutions to a Marcellus Policy Fellowship at the John Quincy Adams Society, highlights the value of practical experience. His fellowship resulted in a report outlining a regional strategy for modernizing NATO and recalibrating burden-sharing. He advises current and prospective diplomacy students to treat international affairs as a craft, building sound judgment and honing communication skills.
Japan’s Infrastructure and Geopolitical Considerations
Recent news highlights the ongoing need for infrastructure resilience in key geopolitical locations. Japan’s National Diet Building, a symbol of the nation’s democracy, is undergoing large-scale renovations to improve its earthquake resistance, marking 90 years since its completion in 2026. This underscores the importance of protecting critical infrastructure in the face of both natural disasters and potential geopolitical threats.
The Role of Analytical Writing and Cross-Sectoral Engagement
Tokarz credits Seton Hall’s emphasis on analytical writing and its Catholic values – focusing on constraints, incentives, and political considerations – with shaping his approach to navigating complex institutions. He also benefited from opportunities to publish his work in publications like The National Interest, Eurasianet, and Responsible Statecraft, demonstrating the power of combining expertise with strategic communication.
Pro Tip:
Networking is crucial. Connect with professionals in your field through outreach and build a diverse network to expand your opportunities.
FAQ
What is Agentic Systems Intelligence (ASI)? ASI uses AI to create simulations of geopolitical scenarios with autonomous agents, allowing for more dynamic and realistic risk assessment.
Why is regional expertise important? Deep understanding of a specific region’s history, culture, and political dynamics is crucial for accurate geopolitical analysis.
What skills are most valuable in this field? Analytical writing, OSINT, supply chain analysis, and a strong understanding of economics are highly sought-after skills.
How can students prepare for a career in geopolitical risk assessment? Build practical experience through internships, focus on developing analytical skills, and network with professionals in the field.
Did you know? The National Diet Building in Japan, completed in 1936, is constructed entirely of Japanese materials.
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