The Drone Revolution: From Ukraine to the Middle East and Beyond
A low-cost Iranian-designed drone has unexpectedly become a defining weapon of modern conflict. Adopted or copied by militaries from Russia to the United States, these Shahed drones are complicating how armies fight and defend.
Iran developed the Shahed drone, an inexpensive long-range weapon, for its armed forces and its militant proxies. Russia took it into its war against Ukraine and began making its own version. Now, in the newest major conflict, the US military is using its own lookalike drones to strike targets in the Middle East.
The Rise of Loitering Munitions
These drones are far cheaper than many conventional missiles and difficult to counter at scale, especially when mixed into traditional missile strike packages – a development that is shifting key cost and defense considerations in war. The one-way attack drone, also known as a loitering munition, is a “truly revolutionary precision weapon, which challenges the West’s defensive technologies and systems.”
Russia’s Battlefield Adaptation
The first notable use of Shaheds was against Saudi Arabia in 2019. The drones took on a much greater significance in Ukraine, where Russia’s use of them completely changed the fight. Iran supplied Russia with Shahed-131s and Shahed-136s. Russia later started making its own variant, the Geran, now one of the key weapons supplementing its arsenal of precision-guided munitions.
Russia invested heavily in domestic production, expanding output and regularly updating the drones to improve range, payload, and survivability. Russia’s use has surged, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stating that Russia was making around 500 a day, and had fired more than 57,000 of the drones since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
These drones have hit residential buildings, front-line weaponry, power plants, and trains, causing death and devastation. Warfare experts have described Russia as using “a punishment strategy to force Kyiv into negotiations” that would harm its sovereignty, with the Shaheds being key to that strategy. They are designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, forcing adversaries to expend costly interceptors.
The US Response: Mirroring the Technology
The US attacked Iran with its Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System, or LUCAS, drone, which looks almost identical to Shahed drones. US Central Command acknowledged its connection to the Shaheds, stating the “low-cost drones, modeled after Iran’s Shahed drones, are now delivering American-made retribution.”
The weapon that Iran pioneered is now being used against it in a war of long-range strikes, similar to the one being fought in Ukraine. Iran is also using its drones, mixing them into its missile strikes as Russia does in Ukraine. The UAE detected 186 ballistic missiles and 812 drones fired toward its territory since Saturday.
Changing the Warfare Equation
Shahed-style drones pose problems for militaries. They are so cheap that many more of them can be fired than missiles, and they can destroy weaponry that is far more expensive. They are generally easier to intercept than ballistic missiles, but some still penetrate defenses, creating psychological pressure.
The CSIS analysts argued that “Russia’s dependence on Shaheds is based on attrition logic,” explaining that “each drone costs approximately $20,000—$50,000, whereas even a single modern surface-to-air missile (SAM) battery or interceptor missile can cost several hundred thousand dollars.”
Ukraine has developed a host of solutions, and Zelenskyy said last month that it shoots down 90% of the Shahed-style drones that Russia launches. It relies heavily on electronic warfare, mobile gun teams, and interceptor drones — lower-cost layers that reduce dependence on expensive missile defenses.
The US and other allies are increasingly looking to lessons from Ukraine to counter emerging threats, particularly drones.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a loitering munition?
A loitering munition, also known as a one-way attack drone, is a weapon system that can loiter in the air for an extended period before attacking a target. They are designed to be relatively inexpensive and can be deployed in large numbers.
How much does a Shahed drone cost?
Shahed drones are estimated to cost between $20,000 and $50,000 each.
What is the LUCAS drone?
The LUCAS drone is a low-cost unmanned combat attack system developed by the US, modeled after Iran’s Shahed drones.
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