The NBA’s New MVP Equation: Games Played, Betting Shifts and Rising Stars
The race for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award is heating up, but a new rule is throwing a wrench into the traditional calculations. Players must now participate in at least 65 games to be eligible, creating uncertainty for established stars and opening the door for unexpected contenders. As of February 25, 2026, the landscape is shifting rapidly, impacting both on-court performance and the betting markets.
The 65-Game Rule: A Game Changer
For years, MVP consideration largely revolved around statistical dominance and team success. However, the NBA’s new requirement—a minimum of 65 games played—adds a crucial element of durability. This rule aims to reward consistent performance throughout the season, discouraging load management and prioritizing availability. Both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets, previous MVP winners, are currently at risk of falling short of this threshold.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic: On the Bubble
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, currently the odds-on favorite at -125 (DraftKings Sportsbook), has already missed 11 games due to an abdominal strain. He needs to appear in at least 16 of the remaining 22 regular-season games to remain eligible. Nikola Jokic, with 16 games missed, faces an even tighter margin, needing to play all but two of his remaining contests. The precariousness of their situations is significantly influencing betting odds and sparking debate among analysts.
Cade Cunningham’s Surge: A Betting Market Indicator
The uncertainty surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic has created a vacuum in the betting markets, and Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham is capitalizing. Over the past week, Cunningham has attracted more MVP bets at DraftKings Sportsbook than all other players combined, moving his odds from 14-1 to 9-2. This surge in betting interest reflects a growing belief in Cunningham’s impact and the potential for a surprise winner. BetMGM sportsbooks have also seen more bets placed on Cunningham than any other player this season.
Beyond the Top Two: Other Contenders Emerge
Whereas Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic remain at the forefront, other players are gaining traction. Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics has seen his odds improve, and Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs, despite missing 14 games, is attracting significant betting volume. Wembanyama is currently at 20-1, demonstrating the public’s fascination with his unique skillset and potential impact. Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards are also drawing increased attention from bettors, though at longer odds (100-1 and 250-1 respectively).
The Impact of Betting Trends on Perception
The dramatic shifts in betting odds aren’t merely a reflection of player availability; they also influence public perception. Increased betting on a player like Cunningham amplifies media coverage and fuels the narrative surrounding their candidacy. This creates a feedback loop, where betting trends and media attention reinforce each other, potentially shaping the outcome of the MVP race.
FAQ
Q: What is the new NBA rule for MVP eligibility?
A: Players must participate in at least 65 games during the regular season to be eligible for the MVP award.
Q: Who is currently the MVP favorite?
A: As of February 25, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite, with odds of -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Q: Which player has seen the biggest jump in MVP betting interest?
A: Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons has seen the most significant increase in MVP bets, moving from 14-1 to 9-2 in the past week.
Q: Is Victor Wembanyama still a viable MVP candidate?
A: Despite missing games, Wembanyama is attracting significant betting interest and remains a potential, though less likely, candidate.
Did you know? The 65-game rule was implemented before the 2023-24 season to prioritize player availability and reward consistent performance.
Pro Tip: Keep a close eye on injury reports and game schedules. The MVP race will likely come down to which contenders can maintain their health and availability throughout the remainder of the season.
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