Shōta Imanaga’s Spring Training: Early Signs of a Potential Course Correction
Spring Training is a period of cautious optimism for baseball fans, a time to observe early indicators while acknowledging the inherent volatility of small sample sizes. For Chicago Cubs fans, all eyes are on Shōta Imanaga, whose performance in the latter half of the 2025 season raised concerns. A closer look at his spring performance suggests a potential course correction, but also highlights lingering issues that require addressing.
The 2025 Struggles: A Deep Dive
Imanaga’s 2025 season was a tale of two halves. While he showed promise early on, his performance declined as the season progressed, culminating in struggles with pitch location and a concerning increase in home runs allowed. Examining his stats reveals a clear trend. His strikeout rate decreased over time, while his walk rate remained consistently elite. He consistently threw strikes, but those strikes became increasingly hittable.
| Season | Month | IP | TBF | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | K% | BB% | K-BB% | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mar/Apr | 27.2 | 108 | 9.11 | 0.98 | 9.33 | 0.65 | 25.93% | 2.78% | 23.15% | .181 | 0.80 | .227 | 88.54% | 2.41 | 3.44 |
| 2024 | May | 30.1 | 123 | 9.20 | 2.08 | 4.43 | 0.89 | 25.20% | 5.69% | 19.51% | .250 | 1.19 | .317 | 84.91% | 3.10 | 3.81 |
| 2024 | Jun | 27 | 117 | 8.33 | 1.33 | 6.25 | 1.67 | 21.37% | 3.42% | 17.95% | .288 | 1.33 | .329 | 53.33% | 4.28 | 4.33 |
| 2024 | Jul | 24.2 | 97 | 9.85 | 1.09 | 9.00 | 1.46 | 27.84% | 3.09% | 24.74% | .217 | 0.93 | .262 | 92.78% | 3.69 | 3.67 |
| 2024 | Aug | 36.2 | 146 | 9.08 | 1.47 | 6.17 | 2.21 | 25.34% | 4.10% | 21.23% | .221 | 1.01 | .234 | 73.77% | 4.83 | 3.37 |
| 2024 | Sept/Oct | 27 | 103 | 8.67 | 1.67 | 5.20 | 1.33 | 25.24% | 4.85% | 20.39% | .184 | 0.85 | .206 | 100.00% | 3.72 | 3.20 |
| 2025 | Mar/Apr | 39 | 159 | 6.92 | 3.00 | 2.31 | 1.62 | 18.87% | 8.18% | 10.69% | .214 | 1.13 | .220 | 90.64% | 4.93 | 4.93 |
| 2025 | May | 5.2 | 22 | 6.35 | 1.59 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 18.18% | 4.55% | 13.64% | .190 | 0.88 | .235 | 60.00% | 2.25 | 5.52 |
| 2025 | Jun | 5 | 17 | 5.40 | 1.80 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 17.65% | 5.88% | 11.76% | .063 | 0.40 | .077 | 100.00% | 2.54 | 5.00 |
| 2025 | Jul | 33.1 | 134 | 7.02 | 0.54 | 13.00 | 2.43 | 19.40% | 1.49% | 17.91% | .256 | 1.05 | .250 | 85.47% | 5.36 | 4.53 |
| 2025 | Aug | 34 | 122 | 8.47 | 1.32 | 6.40 | 1.32 | 26.23% | 4.10% | 22.13% | .154 | 0.68 | .163 | 81.25% | 3.61 | 3.92 |
| 2025 | Sept/Oct | 27.2 | 113 | 7.16 | 1.30 | 5.50 | 3.25 | 19.47% | 3.54% | 15.93% | .275 | 1.23 | .260 | 65.00% | 6.68 | 4.32 |
Spring Training: Early Returns
The initial reports from Cubs Spring Training offer a mixed bag. The encouraging sign is a velocity increase on Imanaga’s pitches. His fastball has been sitting around 92 mph, a couple of ticks higher than his 2025 average of 90.8 mph. His splitter and sweeper have also seen similar increases. However, this velocity boost hasn’t translated into immediate success. In his start against the White Sox on March 1, he surrendered three home runs, raising concerns about his ability to keep the ball in the park.
The Home Run Problem: A Persistent Threat
While it’s crucial to remember the small sample size, the home run rate in that start (37.5%) is a worrying echo of his 2025 struggles. Pitchers frequently adjust their approach during Spring Training, experimenting with new pitches and refining their mechanics. However, if Imanaga continues to miss his spots, even an extra two miles per hour on his fastball might not be enough to replicate his 2024 results.
FAQ
Q: Is it too early to worry about Imanaga’s performance?
A: Yes, it’s very early. Spring Training stats should be viewed with caution. However, the trends are worth monitoring.
Q: What was Imanaga’s biggest issue in 2025?
A: He struggled with pitch location, leading to an increase in home runs allowed.
Q: What is a great HR/FB rate?
A: Generally, a HR/FB rate below 10% is considered good, while anything above 15% is a cause for concern.
Q: Where can I find more information about the Cubs’ Spring Training schedule?
A: You can find the latest information on MLB.com and ESPN.
Stay tuned for further updates as Spring Training progresses. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Imanaga can address his issues and return to his 2024 form.
