SpaceX is planning the most ambitious test yet of its massive new rocket Starship from a pad in South Texas on Friday, November 13, 2024, [npr.org] reported.
The test involves lifting off from South Texas, circling the Earth, and landing vertically at the same pad 22 and a half hours later, according to [npr.org]. Starship is the largest rocket ever built, but it cannot yet carry astronauts, [npr.org] noted.
Elon Musk, the company founder, hopes the rocket will one day carry astronauts to Mars. However, experts say the rapid development of Starship could end up stranding one of the company’s biggest boosters over the years: NASA, [npr.org] reported.
“The road trip to Mars is six months — so you don’t want to be in the minivan,” said Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president, during the All In summit in Los Angeles in September.
SpaceX will attempt to catch both the Super Heavy booster and Starship on the upcoming flight. If both are successful, it will mark the first time that all parts of an orbital rocket return to Earth intact. This is the critical breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary. https://t.co/BIxkhd5bkR
SpaceX plans to phase out Falcon 9 launches
As SpaceX ramps up Starship, the company has said it will stop flying a much smaller rocket called Falcon 9. The Dragon capsule is launched by the Falcon 9, which remains the sole American vehicle currently able to transport NASA crew members to and from the International Space Station.
“Because Dragon has become such a successful and reliable vehicle, it became the de facto way for astronauts to get to orbit,” said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, a firm that tracks the space industry, told [npr.org].
A NASA announcement in September showed the space agency contracted with SpaceX for three additional flights to the International Space Station. That would allow Dragon to fly through 2028, assuming missions are flown consecutively in six-month increments and no further flights are contracted.
“NASA and SpaceX continue to work closely together across numerous missions and contractual agreements, including crew and cargo transportation to the International Space Station,” the space agency said in an e-mail statement to [npr.org]. “As the commercial space industry evolves, so will the technologies and services available to NASA.”
We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized. Still tiny numbers compared to airplane flights!
Commercial shift toward Starlink
In 2008, following multiple failures of the Falcon 9, SpaceX was close to bankruptcy. Musk told CBS’ 60 Minutes in a 2014 interview that the company was running on fumes with virtually no money before NASA came through with a large contract.
“I couldn’t even hold the phone, I just blurted out, ‘I love you guys!’,” Musk said, according to [npr.org].
For the next decade, NASA and Pentagon contracts drove a large share of company revenue. That changed in 2020 when SpaceX launched Starlink, a subscription satellite internet service whose earnings quickly eclipsed rocket launch revenue, [npr.org] reported.
Questions about future launch gaps
The retirement of the Falcon rocket will impact operations beyond human spaceflight. Research from Quilty Space indicates that the commercial sector could experience a deficit of roughly 150 launches by 2030, and [npr.org] reported that the Pentagon is apparently scrambling to secure launch availability for its national security payloads.
The U.S. Space Force stated it secured Falcon 9 launches through 2028 and remains confident other suppliers can pick up the slack. Tim Farrar, president of TMF associates, said that SpaceX has moved far beyond its launch business.
“SpaceX has now got an enormous amount on its plate,” Farrar told [npr.org]. “It’s not making a lot of money out of NASA. Although it seems likely that the individual missions are profitable, they’re small potatoes.”
How long the Dragon capsule will fly to the space station?
How long will the Dragon capsule continue flying to the space station?
Under current contracts, the Dragon capsule is scheduled to fly through 2028, assuming missions are flown consecutively in six-month increments without additional contracts, [npr.org] reported.
What company alternatives exist for crew transportation?
Shotwell indicated that Boeing could fly to the station instead, noting that Boeing was paid to develop its Starliner capsule, [npr.org] reported.
Ship 42 moves to the Starbase pad ahead of launch pic.twitter.com/pMUFTHneJQ
When is the International Space Station scheduled to retire?
The International Space Station is currently set to retire in 2030, according to [npr.org].
What vehicle will replace the Falcon 9 for SpaceX?
SpaceX is shifting resources to the larger Starship rocket, which is already being used to send V3 satellites for Starlink into orbit, [npr.org] reported.
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